EM Markets Chart Pack We expect EM local currency bond yields to remain low Positive vaccine news has not changed our view that monetary policy in many emerging markets (EMs) will generally remain loose for some time yet. That is a key reason why we still expect EM local... 18th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Not out of the woods yet While vaccine developments have improved the economic outlook for the latter half of next year, the near-term weakness in economic activity means that property values will remain under pressure over... 18th December 2020 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Vaccine offers hope, but challenges still lie ahead Daily new COVID-19 infections have levelled off or fallen in most parts of Central Europe and there are signs that activity has started to rebound. But the fresh rise in new cases this month in... 17th December 2020 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Four key developments to focus on in 2021 2020 has been a year full of surprises and in this Update we outline key areas to watch next year. Early vaccine distribution will pave the way for a rapid economic recovery, but disinflation forces... 15th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the outlook for EM LC sovereign bonds Although we have revised up our forecasts for economic growth in many emerging markets (EMs), we generally still expect monetary policy to remain loose, or be loosened further, to the benefit of local... 14th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey sanctions threat, EU compromise, CEE inflation The possibility of the US and EU imposing sanctions on Turkey has increased this week and a further escalation of tensions could undermine the gains from the recent shift to more orthodox economic... 11th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Next year’s vaccine boost to vary across countries The race to secure and approve COVID-19 vaccines is in full swing and, while roll-out will generally be slower in EMs than in DMs, immunisation of vulnerable populations over the next year or so is a... 10th December 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is there really a housing bubble forming in Russia? The success of the Russian government’s preferential mortgage scheme this year has prompted concerns that a bubble might be forming in Russia’s housing market, but we think this risk is some way off... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland, Hungary and the EU budget: what’s at stake Failure of Poland and Hungary to reach an agreement with the EU over the veto of the bloc’s budget would have severe political and economic consequences if funds were withheld. Even if a deal is... 9th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.) The jump in Russian inflation to a 16-month high of 4.4% y/y last month takes the prospect of further interest rate cuts off the table for the next few months at least. That said, with underlying... 4th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EU Budget, Russia vaccinations, Romania elections Leaders in Hungary and Poland appear unwilling to back down over their EU budget veto, but threats by EU officials to circumvent them entirely may make a compromise more likely. President Putin’s... 4th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE-euro-zone office yield spread to keep widening A weaker CEE rental outlook, coupled with tighter policy and investors’ reassessment of the sector, suggest that the recent widening between CEE and euro-zone office yields has further to go. 3rd December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate jumped to a stronger-than-expected 14.0% y/y in November and, while the lira has rallied strongly over the past month and the economy looks set to suffer a fresh... 3rd December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New forecasts in a world of COVID-19 vaccines The distribution of effective COVID-19 vaccines is likely to be relatively quick in Emerging Europe, paving the way for robust economic recoveries that will leave economies much closer to their pre... 1st December 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs for November point to a slowdown in the region but, overall, the sector has held up much better than services. Encouraging signs that Central & Eastern Europe has brought COVID... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The reversal of relative fortunes within EM equities We think that the outperformance of equities in EM EMEA and Latin America relative to those in EM Asia in November is a sign of things to come, as the world recovers from COVID-19. 30th November 2020 · 4 mins read
