Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Recovery now in a tougher phase After an initial burst of growth following the lifting of national lockdowns, the latest activity data and mobility indicators point to a slower pace of recovery in most EMs in recent months. This... 24th September 2020 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM food inflation set to ease A number of EMs – notably Brazil, Mexico and Korea – have experienced strong increases in food inflation in recent months, which have pushed up headline rates. But we think that food inflation in the... 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Rising cases threaten the recovery in Central Europe The speed and size of the rise in new coronavirus cases in parts of Central and Eastern Europe is now starting to challenge our optimism about the strength of the recovery. The Czech Republic, Hungary... 24th September 2020 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish lira, Russia’s vaccine, virus cases in Hungary The pressure on the Turkish lira this week as the risk of EU sanctions continued to rise has prompted a further tightening of monetary conditions, but an outright hike to policy rates at next week’s... 18th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export recovery will be a long slog The rebound in EM exports continued in July, but further gains will be harder to come by from here. Indeed, the initial boost from re-opening economies is likely to fade and the slowing global... 17th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker suggests that last month EMs suffered the largest net outflow of capital since the height of the market turmoil in March. Net outflows look set to persist in the coming months, although... 16th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s resilient GDP, virus cases grabbing headlines The breakdown of Russian Q2 GDP released this week showed that the economy's sectoral structure helped to cushion the fall in output from the pandemic. More recently, there have been encouraging signs... 11th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will EMs gain from China’s strong recovery? China’s strong economic recovery is likely to provide more of a support to the recovery in (non-oil) commodity producers in Latin America and Africa than it will in the rest of Asia. But we don’t... 10th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles: revisiting lessons from the GFC The experience of the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) chimes with our EM rates view on two counts. The first is that easing cycles in many EMs are now at an end (Brazil) or will draw to... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Spate of financial crises avoided, but hangovers loom Most major EMs have managed to avoid acute balance of payments, banking sector and sovereign debt problems so far this year. But pockets of vulnerability remain. In particular, the risk of another... 4th September 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian ruble under pressure, Central Europe recovery The ratcheting up in geopolitical tensions in Russia this week amid concerns about the use of a chemical nerve agent is a warning sign for the ruble and further falls in the currency are likely to lie... 4th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rising virus cases not a major threat to the recovery New daily coronavirus cases have hit record highs across Central and Eastern Europe over the past month and authorities have responded by tightening restrictions at a local level. Health systems in... 2nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs provide more evidence of uneven recovery The further rise in the EM manufacturing PMI to a nine-year high of 52.5 in August, from 51.4 in July, suggests that the EM recovery continued in the middle of Q3. But the rebound has been uneven... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The batch of manufacturing PMIs across Emerging Europe for August provided further signs that the economic rebound continued in Q3. Industrial sectors are likely to recover further over the coming... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fragile EU-Turkey relations, MNB in a bind The Turkish central bank's tightening of monetary conditions has helped to stabilise the lira but the further ratcheting up of tensions with the EU and threat of measures beyond sanctions mean that... 28th August 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The further increase in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for August echoes the message from other surveys and high-frequency data that the recovery gained pace in Q3. But sentiment remains far... 28th August 2020 · 2 mins read
