Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Russian inflation jumped to 4.0% y/y in October as the weakness in the ruble continued to feed into stronger consumer prices. There’s now a greater chance that inflation peaks at a higher level than... 6th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP holds fire as restrictions are tightened in Poland Poland’s central bank left its policy rate on hold at 0.10% at today’s MPC meeting and opted to reinforce its commitment to its asset purchase programme rather than announce new unconventional... 6th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lockdown not enough for CNB to cut interest rates The Czech National Bank (CNB) kept interest rates on hold at today’s MPC meeting and, despite its downbeat view on the economic outlook, gave no hint that monetary policy would be loosened further. We... 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE retail set for a harsh winter The second virus wave in CEE came at a time when the region’s retail sector was already on its knees. We now expect the fall in rents to continue in Q4, albeit at a slower pace than in Q2. 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The PMIs for October were fairly strong across the region and suggest that industry continued to recover last month. However, they probably understated the impact of the latest virus restrictions in... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira sell-off adds pressure on the CBRT, protests in Poland Last week's decision by Turkey's central bank to tweak the interest rate 'corridor' has come back to bite hard with the lira falling sharply this week. This has raised talk that policymakers may be... 30th October 2020 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor CEE entering a renewed downturn The rapid spread of COVID-19 in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) will cause a renewed slump in the region in Q4. That contrasts with India and parts of Latin America and Africa, where falling new cases... 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia, Turkey, and the implications of the US election A Biden presidency would probably result in a tougher US foreign policy stance against both Russia and Turkey, paving the way for a further deterioration in relations, an increased risk of tighter... 30th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q3 2020) The 6.2% q/q rebound in Czech GDP in Q3 was stronger than expected, but this predated the surge in virus infections and tightening of restrictions which we expect to cause a renewed contraction in Q4... 30th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) The small fall in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for October is consistent with the region’s recovery stalling this month. But given that the data collection period for October predates the... 29th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Virus restrictions to trigger a renewed downturn The coronavirus outbreak across the region has gone from bad to worse. The Czech Republic has one of the highest per capita infection rates in the world and the two-week national lockdown until... 28th October 2020 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s recovery stalls, region headed for a downturn in Q4 Russia’s economy lost steam at the end of Q3 amid a contraction in consumer spending and the next stage of the recovery will be harder given the hit to incomes, weak investment and tight fiscal policy... 23rd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Asia leading the way The speed and strength of economic recoveries in emerging markets will continue to vary enormously by country, with China and some other parts of Asia leading and India, South Africa and much of Latin... 23rd October 2020 · 26 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Strong recovery suffers a setback Fresh virus outbreaks and tighter containment measures mean that the economies of Emerging Europe are likely to suffer a fresh downturn in Q4, but we still think that the region will bounce back more... 22nd October 2020 · 28 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT’s ‘corridor’ tweaks disappoint Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) left its benchmark one-week repo rate unchanged at 10.25% today but adjusted its other policy rates to give it more scope to tighten monetary conditions via the ‘corridor’... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The US election and its impact on emerging markets Whatever the outcome of the US election, we expect that the trends of US-China decoupling and deglobalisation will continue. The election result could be pivotal for some EMs: a Joe Biden victory... 16th October 2020 · 5 mins read
