Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT’s optimism, Central Europe to slow further In its latest Inflation Report, Turkey’s central bank stuck to its forecast for inflation to fall back in 2020-21, but this rests on the farfetched assumption that a negative output gap will persist... 31st January 2020 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) January’s batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for Central and Eastern Europe point to regional GDP growth slowing to a fresh three-year low of 3.2% y/y in Q1. With signs that weak external... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkey drives regional recovery Regional GDP growth in Emerging Europe appears to have picked up from 2.2% y/y in Q3 to around 2.5% y/y in Q4. This was predominantly driven by a recovery in Turkey’s economy, where policymakers are... 29th January 2020 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack China’s coronavirus and the fallout for EMs There is no longer any doubt that China’s newly-identified coronavirus will hit its GDP growth in Q1. And other parts of Asia (notably Hong Kong and Thailand) will suffer a drop in Chinese tourism... 27th January 2020 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish inflation, Russia’s government, US tariff threat Comments from Turkey’s central bank governor this week suggest that further interest rate cuts lie in store. This is premised on the view that inflation will fall back, which is likely to prove... 24th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for the EM easing cycle? We expect that the broad-based EM easing cycle has further to run in the coming months but, as growth and inflation in many countries rise, it will be less widespread than in 2019. More importantly... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia and Turkey to drive pick-up in growth Regional GDP growth is likely to gather pace this year as loose monetary and fiscal policy bolsters recoveries in Russia and Turkey and helps to cushion the slowdown in Central Europe. Interest rates... 23rd January 2020 · 26 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2019) We estimate that net capital outflows from Emerging Markets fell to a six-month low in December, and they probably declined further at the start of this year. With global growth close to bottoming out... 23rd January 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM growth to pick up despite China slowdown After a bad 2019, aggregate emerging market growth is likely to strengthen this year, driven by improvements in large EMs including Brazil, Russia and India. But recoveries will generally be... 22nd January 2020 · 24 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin’s political storm, Central European rates Russia’s political drama has triggered a flurry of speculation about how President Putin plans to wield power beyond the end of his term in 2024. We see nothing in this to change our downbeat long... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Phase One deal: the good and bad for EMs The latest data suggest that y/y EM export growth turned positive in December, having contracted for much of 2019. We think this will mark the start of a run of better EM export figures. Meanwhile... 17th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov.) The Turkish industrial production and retail sales figures for November were a mixed bag but, on balance, suggest that the economy gathered pace in Q4. Looser policy means that we think the economy... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations unlikely to continue to support EM equities We think that the returns from emerging market (EM) equities in 2020 won’t be anywhere as good as in 2019. While this view is partly premised on our forecast that earnings growth will generally be... 13th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lower for longer: EM interest rates after the golden era This decade is likely to be marked by slower growth and softer inflation in emerging markets. One consequence is that interest rates will probably be lower than most currently anticipate. 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s banking risks, boom time in Hungary Turkey’s financial markets have rebounded in recent days, partly because fears of a US-Iran war have eased but also because local banks have sounded more bullish on their own performance this year... 10th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Oil prices, African Swine Fever & EM inflation Our measure of aggregate EM inflation, which hit a four and a half year high last month, should fall over the course of this year as the disruption caused by African Swine Fever fades. But this is... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
