Europe Economics Update Europe will move cautiously over Greenland threats If implemented and sustained for a long period, the new tariffs that President Trump has threatened over the Greenland dispute could cost the euro-zone economy something between 0.2% and 0.5% of GDP... 19th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response Greenland tariffs: the political consequences would trump the economic It remains unclear whether President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries unless a deal is reached to acquire Greenland will ever materialise. But if it does, the economic... 18th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone industry is in structural decline Euro-zone industrial production rose in November, and the outlook for certain sectors – such as defence and pharmaceuticals – is fairly bright. But overall, industry is likely to remain weak and it... 15th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany's GDP (2025) The first estimate of annual GDP for 2025 confirms that Germany’s much-vaunted fiscal “stimulus” did not get underway last year and that economic activity remained broadly stagnant. We think things... 15th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (November) The rise in output in November confirmed that conditions in German industry improved towards the end of last year. But given the significant structural headwinds facing the sector, we doubt this is... 9th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for 2026 The recovery in European commercial property values is set to slow this year given the soft economic growth backdrop and elevated interest rates. Our forecast for euro-zone all-property total returns... 7th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone national inflation data (December) National inflation data released so far suggest that euro-zone headline inflation fell below 2% in December and that the core rate edged down. ECB policymakers will take that as confirmation that... 6th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Reviewing our key calls for 2025 The recovery in European property values in 2025 was broadly as we forecasted. However, the drivers differed slightly from our expectations, with a smaller-than-expected fall in prime property yields... 6th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (December 2025) The fall in the German Ifo in December chimes with the drop in the Composite PMI and suggests that the long-awaited recovery in the German economy still has not materialised, with the fiscal stimulus... 17th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (December 2025) December’s flash PMI was a little weaker than the reading in November but is still consistent with the economy expanding moderately in the fourth quarter while inflationary pressures remain too high... 16th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (October) The rise in German industrial production in October was stronger than expected but it still left output close to a post-pandemic low. And though defence spending appears to be supporting production... 8th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France, Italy & Spain HICP (November 2025) The national inflation data for November published today suggest that headline and core inflation in the euro-zone edged up. 28th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (November 2025) The fall in the German Ifo in November chimes with the drop in the Composite PMI and suggests that the German economy remains weak, with the fiscal stimulus is not yet having a meaningful impact. We... 24th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (November 2025) November’s flash PMI for the euro-zone was little changed from the reading in October and suggests that the economy has continued to expand only slowly in the fourth quarter, while inflationary... 21st November 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (September) The rebound in German industrial production in September reversed only a fraction of August’s fall and left output still extremely weak. The poor outlook for industry is a key reason why we expect... 6th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France and Italy GDP (Q3 2025) National data available so far suggests that euro-zone GDP probably grew by a slightly stronger than expected 0.2% q/q in Q3, mainly thanks to a strong performance by France and Spain. Germany and... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
