Europe Economics Weekly How worrying is German wage inflation? In our view, the concerns which were raised again this week about a wage-price spiral in Germany look overdone. The Indeed tracker suggests that wage pressures have eased since late 2022 and there are... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Data improving, but German retail prospects still weak Despite better occupier data in H1, the weak consumer backdrop and still elevated vacancy mean we expect German retail rents to only hold steady this year. Thereafter, we expect rental gains to lag... 15th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Prospects for German industry remain poor German industrial output rebounded in June and may well expand a bit over the coming year or so. But any recovery will be weak and the sector will remain in structural decline. 7th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly September cut still likely; Germany-Spain divergence We think data released this week are just about consistent with an ECB rate cut in September, but with underlying price pressures still high that is not a done deal. Meanwhile, the recent economic... 2nd August 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany and Spain HICP (July) The increase in German HICP inflation from 2.5% in June to 2.6% in July left it a little higher than expected and means that the aggregate euro-zone inflation rate, which will be published tomorrow... 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone National-level GDP (Q2 2024) National-level data released so far suggests that euro-zone GDP growth slowed to 0.2% q/q in Q2 and the weakening of the surveys in July suggests GDP growth may have eased further this quarter. 30th July 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone continues sluggish recovery Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone recovery is fizzling out and leave us comfortable with our below-consensus forecasts for economic growth. Next week, we expect to learn that euro... 26th July 2024 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ageing population to weigh on EZ labour market Net immigration to euro-zone countries will probably be higher than the UN assumes in its latest population forecasts. But we still think the working age population will decline over the coming decade... 25th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) The large fall in the German Ifo BCI in July, which follows a similar drop in the Composite PMI published yesterday, adds to the impression that the rebound in Germany’s economy earlier in the year... 25th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus German debt brake to cause more self-inflicted pain Fiscal policy has become almost as fraught in Germany as it is in France and Italy, but rather than from a desire to run very loose fiscal policy, Germany’s woes stem from its strict “debt brake”... 23rd July 2024 · 21 mins read
Global Markets Update Swiss-German bond yield spread likely to narrow slightly We anticipate the spread between 10-year Swiss and German government bond yields, which has widened significantly since 2022, will narrow only slightly over the next couple of years. 11th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update German budget deal only moderately encouraging The budget deal struck by the governing coalition in Germany reduces the risk of the country being forced into early elections. But it does little to address Germany’s structural problems, in part... 8th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (May) The slump in German industrial production in May fully reverses the increase in output at the start of the year and suggests that German industry is not out of the woods yet. We expect output to... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany no longer immune to budget trouble Much of the recent focus has been on France’s political turmoil, but Germany has had its own troubles with disagreement over the 2025 budget threatening the survival of the governing coalition. While... 1st July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Flash HICP (June) Inflation figures for Germany and other major euro-zone economies suggest that, after rising in May, euro-zone headline and core inflation edged back down in June. But services inflation remained high... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Munich office rent boom has further to go, Berlin trails We are generally pessimistic about the rental outlook in Germany, however, this conceals large variance across cities – most notably for offices between leader Munich and laggard Berlin. Munich prime... 25th June 2024 · 3 mins read
