Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (December) The seventh consecutive monthly fall in German industrial output in December confirms that industry remains a significant drag on growth. We expect this to continue throughout 2024. 7th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone set for years of austerity-lite After years of fiscal largesse, austerity is back. We suspect that budget cuts will reduce euro-zone GDP growth by only around 0.1 or 0.2 percentage points per year over the next five years. But the... 1st February 2024 · 15 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany HICP Inflation (January 2024) National data published so far suggest that headline and core inflation in the euro-zone came down a little more than we had expected in January. This makes us more confident in our view that the ECB... 31st January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Swiss policymakers may cut rates before ECB ECB policymakers have set out their stall ahead of next Thursday’s meeting and will continue to push back against expectations of early rate cuts – notwithstanding mounting evidence that the economy... 19th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Early Q4 data show adjustment to higher rates goes on Early prime office yield data for Q4 suggest that the property correction deepened at the end of 2023. The sharp rises in yields occurred despite a more favourable market interest rate environment... 17th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We expect yield curves to normalise this year Government bond yield curves in the US, Germany, and the UK seem to be once again on the path towards “normalisation”, or “disinversion”, as short-term yields are close to breaking below long-term... 15th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany GDP (2023) Preliminary data published today show that German GDP contracted in Q4 and we expect it to continue to struggle this year. 15th January 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German industry still has further to fall Industrial output in Germany is likely to follow November’s decline with further falls this year. While the recent fall in natural gas prices could help to stem the bleeding in the near term, energy... 9th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) The renewed decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in December echoes the message from the Composite PMI released last week and unequivocally points to a continued downturn. It looks very... 18th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (December) The drop-back in the euro-zone Composite PMI in December provides more evidence that the economy is in recession as domestic and foreign demand contracts. 15th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update How the timing of rate cuts could affect bond yields We think that sovereign bond yields in most major economies will generally reach their troughs around the same time over the next year or so. But with the Bank of Japan seemingly set to buck the trend... 7th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Revising our ECB forecast, German fiscal space In light of this week’s data releases we are bringing forward our forecast for the first ECB rate cut to June next year and now think the deposit rate will fall from 4% currently to 3% by the end of... 1st December 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Bund yields may fall by less than Treasury yields next year While we think both yields will fall next year, we expect a smaller drop in the yield of 10-year Bunds than in that of 10-year Treasuries. 29th November 2023 · 4 mins read
