Europe Commercial Property Update Softer German office supply won’t stop vacancy rising The weakness in German construction activity has raised questions about whether a slowdown in new office supply could offset the weakness in demand and prevent a rise in vacancy. But we think that on... 26th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (Sep.) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) confirmed that the German economy remained in the doldrums in September. We continue to expect contractions in GDP in both Q3 and Q4 of this year. 25th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) The small increase in the euro-zone Composite PMI in September left it still in contractionary territory. We think a further contraction in activity lies ahead in the remainder of this year. 22nd September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession risk looms over ECB meeting Christine Lagarde and her colleagues will have some new and gloomy data releases to contemplate when they gather in Frankfurt next week. Indeed, the euro-zone economy looks likely to be slipping into... 8th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (July) Aggregate German industrial output fell sharply again in July and the fall was even larger if the construction and energy sectors are excluded. We expect production to drop further in the rest of the... 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain and Italy hit harder by ECB rate hikes The higher share of floating rate mortgages in Italy and Spain means that household interest spending in both countries has risen much further than in Germany and France. Interest spending is also set... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German fiscal policy to remain looser than pre-Covid The German government is unlikely to announce the kind of big stimulus package that some are calling for. However, fiscal policy will remain much more supportive than it was before the pandemic. 6th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Strong inflation may limit downside for EZ bond yields Stronger-than-expected inflation data from Germany and Spain today add to the uncertainty surrounding the near-term path of ECB policy. On balance, we think that the ECB will raise rates once more in... 30th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany and Spain HICP (August) August’s slightly higher-than-expected inflation rates in Germany and Spain mean euro-zone HICP inflation may not fall as far as we had anticipated (data due tomorrow) and marginally raise the chance... 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany GDP (Q2) and Ifo (Aug.) The fourth successive monthly decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in August, following the slump in the PMIs earlier this week, strongly suggests that the German economy will contract again in... 25th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update An end in sight to the German retail rout? The German retail market has been one of the weakest in Europe since the beginning of 2022 and rental performance so far in 2023 has been well below the euro-zone average. But, with consumer... 24th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (June) German industrial output fell in June and we expect it to decline further in the rest of this year as high interest rates and weakening demand take a toll on production. 7th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update French equities may struggle to outperform again The French stock market’s strong showing since 2018 appears to have been built on solid ground. But French equities have stopped outperforming their German peers this year, and the bar is quite high... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany GDP (Q2 2023) National data released so far suggest that the euro-zone economy held up better than we had anticipated in Q2, with Germany still the laggard among major economies. We continue to think that monetary... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (July) The bigger-than-expected fall in the German Ifo, together with the drop in the PMIs published yesterday, suggest that the German economy continued to shrink at the start of Q3. We expect the recession... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
