Europe Rapid Response Germany and Spain HICP (August) August’s slightly higher-than-expected inflation rates in Germany and Spain mean euro-zone HICP inflation may not fall as far as we had anticipated (data due tomorrow) and marginally raise the chance... 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany GDP (Q2) and Ifo (Aug.) The fourth successive monthly decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in August, following the slump in the PMIs earlier this week, strongly suggests that the German economy will contract again in... 25th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update An end in sight to the German retail rout? The German retail market has been one of the weakest in Europe since the beginning of 2022 and rental performance so far in 2023 has been well below the euro-zone average. But, with consumer... 24th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (June) German industrial output fell in June and we expect it to decline further in the rest of this year as high interest rates and weakening demand take a toll on production. 7th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update French equities may struggle to outperform again The French stock market’s strong showing since 2018 appears to have been built on solid ground. But French equities have stopped outperforming their German peers this year, and the bar is quite high... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany GDP (Q2 2023) National data released so far suggest that the euro-zone economy held up better than we had anticipated in Q2, with Germany still the laggard among major economies. We continue to think that monetary... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (July) The bigger-than-expected fall in the German Ifo, together with the drop in the PMIs published yesterday, suggest that the German economy continued to shrink at the start of Q3. We expect the recession... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Two intriguing developments within the latest rout in bonds There were two intriguing developments in bond markets last week, as the 10-year Treasury yield surged above 4% to its highest level since March. The first was a similar-sized increase in the 10-year... 10th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update When would the Bundesbank need recapitalising? There are circumstances in which the Bundesbank’s losses over the next few years could require it to be recapitalised by the German government. However, we think these are unlikely to occur and the... 10th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (May 2023) German industrial production fell in May and is likely to have declined in Q2. We think industry will continue to struggle over the rest of this year. 7th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Europe, China and EVs: lessons from the 1980s In the 1980s Europe responded to competition from Japanese auto producers with protectionist policies known as Voluntary Export Restraints (VERs). We think its response to competition from China in... 3rd July 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany HICP (June) The increase in German headline and core inflation in June was mainly due to base effects. Euro-zone headline inflation probably still fell but the core rate is likely to have been little changed... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Don’t lose sleep over Bundesbank losses The Bundesbank may make large losses in the coming years but these will be paper losses only, will have no impact on the government’s fiscal position, and are likely to fall over time. While the... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (June) The slump in the German Ifo, together with the drop in the PMIs, released on Friday, suggests that German GDP probably contracted for the third quarter in a row in Q2. We expect the economy to remain... 26th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Weakness in both services and manufacturing sectors The fall in the euro-zone flash Composite PMI from 52.8 in May to 50.3 in June left it even lower than our below-consensus forecast. On the face of it, the index still points to a small expansion in... 23rd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Stagflation to drag on, rates near peak We expect the mild recession in the euro-zone to drag on for the rest of the year. The drop-back in energy prices will provide some relief for households and companies but will be partly offset by... 21st June 2023 · 32 mins read
