Europe Rapid Response German fiscal announcement The announcement by Germany’s Chancellor-in-waiting, Friedrich Merz, that the parties which are likely to form the next government have agreed to substantially boost defence and infrastructure... 4th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany (states), France & Spain Flash Inflation (Feb.) National data published so far suggest that euro-zone headline inflation dropped back in February, and that core inflation might have finally started to come down more significantly. (Euro-zone data... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Global megatrends will outweigh Trump disruption President Trump’s trade and other policies might cause turbulence over the next few years, but they are unlikely to derail the megatrends which will shape the global economy in the long run. We still... 25th February 2025 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
Capital Daily What Germany’s election means for markets We think the new German government won’t prop up the country’s economy much. That’s a reason why we expect to see lower long-term Bund yields, a weaker euro and a poor showing from German equities... 24th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update German election: your questions answered Following yesterday’s federal election in Germany, this Update answers questions raised by clients in our on-line briefing (which can be viewed here). 24th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Federal Election There was never any doubt that the centre right CDU would come out on top of the German federal election and that its leader Friedrich Merz would become the next German Chancellor . The first exit... 23rd February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany: what to expect on election night and beyond Germany’s next government looks set to cut taxes and, if the parliamentary maths allow, reform the constitutional fiscal rule. It is also likely to be firmer in its support for Ukraine even as support... 20th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Key questions on Europe’s defence spending European governments are poised to further scale up their plans for defence spending in the coming years which should benefit the equity prices of European defence companies, but the boost to GDP is... 17th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Implications of an earlier Ukraine peace deal for Europe President Trump’s push for an early peace agreement in Ukraine raises the prospect of higher defence spending in Europe and increases the chance of a fall in European natural gas prices. But it does... 13th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German election: return of the GroKo? The latest opinion polls suggest that a CDU-SPD coalition is the most likely outcome of the German election. Such a coalition would be less likely to pursue labour market reforms and activist... 11th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Equities Update Tariffs, the federal election, and German equities We expect equities in Germany to underperform those in other major developed markets in the coming year or so because German firms are more exposed to the increase in protectionism which appears to be... 11th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: German election 2025 – The new government’s domestic and global challenges 1740391200 Will the federal election outcome bring any clarity to Germany’s existential economic and political questions?
Europe Economics Focus German economy post-election: from bad to not much better We expect Germany’s next government to reform the national fiscal rule to allow some tax cuts and increased public investment. But it is likely to make slow progress on structural reforms such as... 4th February 2025 · 22 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany states, France, Spain Flash HICP (Jan. 2025) 31st January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France, Italy GDP (Q4 2024) With national data now available for all larger euro-zone countries, it looks as if GDP growth in the region slowed to 0.1% q/q or even zero in Q4 last year. (Euro-zone GDP data are out at 10.00 GMT.)... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (January 2025) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) remained in contractionary territory in January which supports the consensus and our own view that that Germany will eke out only a small expansion in GDP this... 27th January 2025 · 1 min read
