Europe Economics Update A bad deal is (just about) better than no deal The trade agreement confirmed yesterday by Presidents Trump and von der Leyen could result in the average tariff on US imports from the EU rising from 1.2% last year to about 17%. We think this will... 28th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (July 2025) The Ifo survey for July confirms that the German economy has been resilient to tariffs so far but that underlying growth remains weak. With tariffs likely to weigh on activity even if a EU-US deal is... 25th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July 2025) July’s Composite PMI for the euro-zone was consistent with the economy doing little more than stagnate. But policymakers at the ECB will be encouraged by the evidence that services price pressures are... 24th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update EU tariffs not stopping China’s EV exporters Auto exporters in China have adapted to the EU’s tariffs on EVs by lowering export prices and focusing on vehicles that are not subject to tariffs. Even if trade restrictions were to remain in place... 10th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (May) The better-than-expected German industrial production figures for May are partly due to continued tariff front-running in the pharmaceuticals sector, but output in other sectors is also proving more... 7th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France, Italy & Spain Flash HICP (June) National data published so far suggest that both euro-zone headline and core inflation were little changed and close to 2% in June. That will please ECB officials, who we expect to cut rates one more... 30th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Where do fiscal deficits need to shrink most? Most major DMs need to shrink their primary budget deficits significantly and most will find it hard to do so. This will exacerbate growing worries about fiscal sustainability. The US and France have... 26th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update German budget: stimulus confirmed, deficit above 3% Germany’s budget plans for 2025-29 confirm that the much anticipated big fiscal stimulus is coming and leave us comfortable with our view that GDP growth will pick up significantly from next year and... 25th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (June 2025) The rise in the Ifo BCI in June suggests that activity in Germany has not yet been meaningfully hit by US tariffs. But output remains weak and we think a proper recovery will only materialise next... 24th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update German fiscal stimulus won’t boost inflation much The upcoming fiscal stimulus in Germany will boost core inflation a bit, but we think the effect will be small and that the core rate will average just over 2% in 2026 and 2027. The stimulus will have... 12th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (April) German industrial production and export figures for April suggest that the boost to activity from US tariff front running is already reversing and that underlying industrial activity remains weak... 6th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Europe-US trade talks after the US court ruling Yesterday’s US court ruling has added yet more uncertainty to the EU-US trade relationship and at face value has weakened President Trump’s position. But the risk of tariffs remains very real not... 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update India will leave Japan (and Germany) trailing in its wake Debate around whether or not India’s economy has surpassed Japan’s in size is raging, but the big picture is that India was always going to overtake Japan – and also Germany – given its positive... 28th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Residential in the UK and the Netherlands to outperform European residential property outperformed all-property for the third consecutive year in 2024 and our updated forecasts suggest that this will continue over the coming five years. Returns were... 27th May 2025 · 3 mins read
