Europe Economics Weekly

Revised bond yield forecasts, Trump and the SNB

Our new bond yield forecasts show US and German bond yields diverging slightly over the coming year as monetary policy is loosened more aggressively in Europe. Meanwhile, we think a universal US...

22nd November 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

What will US protectionism mean for the euro-zone?

Our base case is that protectionist policies from the US next year will have only a small economic impact on Europe, but the fallout will vary between countries and there are risks of greater damage...

22nd November 2024 · 20 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Spain’s labour market sizzling

Spain’s economy is outperforming the euro-zone as a whole, and the difference is also evident in the labour market, which is still tightening at a decent pace in Spain. There now appears to be little...

21st November 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2024)

Stable property yields and solid rental growth supported a second rise in prime all-property values in Q3. While there is still likely to be upward pressure on yields in some markets, property values...

21st November 2024 · 0 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Jump in negotiated wage growth largely due to one-offs

The jump in euro-zone negotiated wage growth in Q3, to a record high of 5.4%, was mostly due to one-off payments in Germany. Wage growth elsewhere was little changed. With headline inflation around 2%...

20th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Investment to pick up but remain sluggish in 2025

The recovery in euro-zone real estate investment has been weak in 2024, with total activity in the first three quarters little changed on 2023’s near-record-lows. However, prospects for 2025 are...

20th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Underlying price pressures fading gradually

Services inflation in the euro-zone has been stuck around 4% for the past 12 months, but there are good reasons to expect it to decline significantly next year. We think that core inflation will...

19th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Larger rate cuts increase the scope for property yield falls

The larger and faster pace of ECB rate cuts we now expect means euro-zone government bond yields are likely to be lower in the coming years than previously forecast. This is positive for property...

19th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

ECB won’t worry about euro-dollar parity

We think that the euro will fall to parity against the US dollar next year but will strengthen against some other currencies, such as the renminbi, and on a trade-weighted basis we forecast it to be...

18th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Initial thoughts on commodities and Trump tariffs

While it is uncertain exactly how Trump will approach tariffs during a second term, China will clearly be in the firing line and commodities could be caught in the crossfire. Iron and steel, and to a...

15th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Europe and geopolitics, Germany’s debt brake

Ten days after the US presidential election we outline the key implications for Europe, ranging from higher tariffs and defence spending to a faster “decoupling” from China. Meanwhile, Friedrich Merz...

15th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Impact of 10% US tariff on euro-zone would be small

We think that the impact of Trump’s proposed 10% universal tariff on euro-zone GDP would be very small, in part because we expect the effect to be offset by a weaker euro. So we aren’t pushing down...

15th November 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Shout it from the rooftops, CRE pricing has troughed

It is increasingly clear to us that pricing in all three regions we forecast has bottomed, even if appraisals are yet to reflect that in mainland Europe and the US. And although we expect recent...

14th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Bonds Update

What to make of shrinking swap spreads in Germany

We wouldn’t read much into the recent contraction in swap spreads in Germany. Despite turning negative, the 10-year euro-zone OIS/Bund spread is not far below its level before the pandemic. And it...

14th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Trump and the war in Ukraine

Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the...

14th November 2024 · 8 mins read