Climate Economics Update More Chinese-made green tech is heading to the EU China’s exports of the New Three are still growing at a strong pace as an increase in shipments to the EU is helping to absorb the hit from US tariffs on trade volumes. While there are signs of... 22nd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update German stimulus: slower and smaller than most expect Recently released details about Germany’s fiscal plans suggest that it may take until the middle of next year to ramp up spending and that less of it will go on infrastructure than initially expected... 19th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak start to Q3; ECB unlikely to change QT for now This week’s data show that the euro-zone economy continued to expand only slowly at the start of Q3. We forecast growth to pick up a bit in the coming quarters but not as much as the consensus expects... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Fed rate cuts won’t be a major influence on commodity prices From a commodity market perspective, the fact that the US Fed is now cutting rates again would usually, all else equal, be expected to boost prices. However, weak market fundamentals and the extent of... 19th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Demand for industrial property near ports should hold up The recent resilience of euro-zone trade is expected to continue in the coming quarters, which will support demand for industrial property near key ports. However, industrial demand near the ports of... 18th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is... 17th September 2025 · 1 min read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the outlook for dollar ahead of the FOMC We no longer expect much of a rebound in the US dollar this year as the FOMC is about to resume rate cuts. But given the extent of Fed easing already discounted, our base case remains that the dollar... 16th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone exports still reslient Data published today show that euro-zone exports were little changed in July and that, after a surge due to front-running earlier in the year, they have settled around their average level over the... 15th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly New French PM, German “autumn of reform” Hints by France’s new prime minister that he will water down plans for budget cuts emphasise that meaningful fiscal tightening in the coming years is very unlikely and support our view that French... 12th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Euro rally still likely to stall While the euro has strengthened a bit against the dollar on the back of today’s ECB policy announcement and US inflation and jobs data, we continue to think that the euro is more likely to fall than... 11th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB on hold, for now The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% today and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was in line with expectations. The Bank is unlikely to change interest rates again... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Why r* is still heading to 2% Recent bond market movements suggest that equilibrium real interest rates may have risen further, perhaps justified by strong AI investment and persistently high government borrowing. But some recent... 11th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily French bonds are up the Bayrou without a paddle The (largely expected) fall of the French government has made limited impact on euro-zone financial markets. But it represents another step in the gradual deterioration of the outlook for French... 9th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) Economic growth has been fairly resilient to tariffs so far and, as long as tariffs stay around the 15% agreed in the EU-US trade deal, the hit to activity should be small. But growth will be sluggish... 9th September 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Your questions on France answered This Update answers the key questions that we received during this morning’s online Drop-in on the collapse of France’s government. (The recording is available here.) The key points are that while... 9th September 2025 · 5 mins read
