Europe Economics Update Politics holding back banking union Regulators will be pleased with the increase in the number of takeover bids in the European banking sector over the past couple of years as they would like the EU to have fewer but larger and more... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trade data resilient despite difficult negotiations Trade data released this week suggest that exports from the EU and Switzerland have been quite resilient since the US imposed a 10% tariff on most products in April. Meanwhile, despite an increase in... 18th July 2025 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: A pause, or an end, to the easing cycle The ECB looks set to leave rates unchanged at next week’s monetary policy meeting and the rate cut that we have pencilled in for September is far from a done deal. Inflation is back down to the ECB’s... 17th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone core inflation to creep down in H2 Headline inflation in the euro-zone was at the 2% target in June, with the core rate a little higher. We forecast core inflation to decline to 2% by the end of the year, and if oil prices fall as we... 17th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tariff front-running continues to support EZ exports Euro-zone exports fell for a second successive month in May but there was evidence of continued front- running in sectors that have not yet been hit by tariffs. And even in sectors which have been hit... 16th July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Upward-only rent review ban in England and Wales would nudge commercial property yields up Experience from Ireland suggests that a ban on upward-only rent reviews will weigh on future rental growth and widen property yield spreads to risk-free rates. While the overall impact is unlikely to... 15th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) The increase in euro-zone industrial production in May confirms that the sector has been resilient to US tariffs so far and that may remain the case in the near term if, as we expect, Trump’s threat... 15th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EUR/USD strength is built on shaky economic assumptions While the interest-rate-differential-defying strength of EUR/USD may be partly explained by increased currency hedging, it also reflects shifting expectations for economic growth. We think those will... 14th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Euro-zone economy benefiting from tariffs The media focus this week has continued to be on EU-US trade negotiations as the pause on Liberation Day tariffs was extended beyond the 9th July deadline and President Trump threatened to send a... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM disinflation has further to run Aggregate EM inflation is now at its lowest level in four years, with notable declines this year across Asia. We still think the outlook will be characterised by higher inflation in Latin America and... 10th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update EU tariffs not stopping China’s EV exporters Auto exporters in China have adapted to the EU’s tariffs on EVs by lowering export prices and focusing on vehicles that are not subject to tariffs. Even if trade restrictions were to remain in place... 10th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update APAC property to underperform globally Poor performance in the US and APAC property markets is set to drag on the global recovery over the next few years. While strong economic fundamentals argue for a material improvement in total returns... 10th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How vulnerable is Ireland to Trump’s policies? There are risks to the Irish economy from potential US tax policy changes but we think they are not as large as they first appear. The country’s large pharmaceutical sector should be fairly resilient... 10th July 2025 · 13 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Portuguese retail to lead the euro-zone We anticipate further yield falls for prime Portugal retail assets over the rest of the year. And with robust economic fundamentals and a solid rental outlook we forecast Portugal to be one of the... 9th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) We think the euro-zone economy will not grow at all in Q2 and Q3 as the first-quarter boost from tariff front-running will not be repeated. Looking through the tariff disruption, growth will be... 8th July 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (May) The better-than-expected German industrial production figures for May are partly due to continued tariff front-running in the pharmaceuticals sector, but output in other sectors is also proving more... 7th July 2025 · 2 mins read
