Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sept. 2025) Euro-zone households still reluctant to spend Euro-zone retail sales fell slightly in September but expanded in the third quarter as a whole. With real incomes and consumer credit both rising, we... 6th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (September) The rebound in German industrial production in September reversed only a fraction of August’s fall and left output still extremely weak. The poor outlook for industry is a key reason why we expect... 6th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update De-risking EU supply chains will be a slow process The EU has prioritised becoming more self-sufficient in the production of critical raw materials. While it is making progress, it is likely to remain heavily dependent on China and China-aligned... 5th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Corporate bonds more supportive of French property valuations Rises in French government bond yields point to material increases in property yields in the next year or so. However, corporate bond yields, as an alternative benchmark, suggest less need for... 5th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s immigration boom set to continue While other major European countries have taken some steps to limit immigration, Spain has liberalised its immigration rules further this year. So we think immigration to Spain will remain very high... 3rd November 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Explaining our non-consensus views on central banks We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to review the latest Fed and ECB decisions and preview the Bank of England’s November meeting. (Recording available here.) This Update provides answers to... 3rd November 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France & Spain: same budget impasse, diverging debt Governments in France and Spain are both struggling to get 2026 budgets through parliament and significant fiscal consolidation is unlikely in either country. But while France’s debt ratio will trend... 31st October 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (October 2025) The small drop back in inflation in October was expected and was driven by a further fall in energy and food inflation. We think both headline and core inflation are likely to fall below 2% in the... 31st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Carbon tax gets docked; renewable outlook dims The delay to implementing a global carbon tax on shipping emissions – that was described by President Trump as a “scam tax” – is another example of policymakers backsliding on climate ambitions and it... 30th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB giving nothing away The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was as expected. The Bank is likely to take the same approach at forthcoming meetings too... 30th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (October 2025) The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% today and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was exactly as expected. The Bank is likely to take the same approach at forthcoming... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3 2025) & ESI (October 2025) Euro-zone GDP growth remained fairly slow in Q3, and October’s economic sentiment indicator was consistent with a similar pace of growth at the start of Q4. 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France and Italy GDP (Q3 2025) National data available so far suggests that euro-zone GDP probably grew by a slightly stronger than expected 0.2% q/q in Q3, mainly thanks to a strong performance by France and Spain. Germany and... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q3 2025) The ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey, published this morning, suggested that mortgage demand in the euro-zone continues to be strong. But households remain reluctant to borrow to boost their... 28th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update France’s stock market likely to remain a laggard France’s financial markets have been under the cosh for much of 2025, as political gridlock in parliament has kept the door revolving at the Matignon. Equities have not gone unscathed, with the bond... 27th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (October 2025) The pick-up in the German Ifo chimes with that in the Composite PMI released on Friday and suggests that the German economy may be past the worst. This would be in line with our view that economy will... 27th October 2025 · 2 mins read
