Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) Economic growth has been fairly resilient to tariffs so far and, as long as tariffs stay around the 15% agreed in the EU-US trade deal, the hit to activity should be small. But growth will be sluggish... 9th September 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Your questions on France answered This Update answers the key questions that we received during this morning’s online Drop-in on the collapse of France’s government. (The recording is available here.) The key points are that while... 9th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (July) German industrial production rose in July and the outturn for June was revised up suggesting that the sector has been resilient to tariffs after all. But output was still weak by past standards. We... 8th September 2025 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar still likely to rebound from latest payrolls setback Another soft non-farm payrolls report has put the dollar on the backfoot again, but given the extent of Fed easing already discounted we continue to think the greenback will remain rangebound over the... 5th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Thirty-year EZ bond yields are not such a worry Yields on long-dated government bonds have been a talking point for investors again this week but we don’t think the increase will have much impact on the economic outlook for the euro-zone. Next week... 5th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus EZ housing recovery to give only a small boost to GDP House prices in the euro-zone are increasing quite quickly, but we doubt that this will last. So rising house prices will provide only limited support to household consumption and investment in the... 5th September 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone resilient to tariffs but growth still sluggish Data released this morning confirmed that the euro-zone economy has been resilient so far in the face of US tariffs and related uncertainty. But the latest surveys point to weak growth in Q3. 5th September 2025 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: Deliberately informative The account of July’s ECB meeting revealed that Christine Lagarde’s messaging in the press conference was “deliberately uninformative about future interest rate decisions”. We set ourselves a slightly... 4th September 2025 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Parsing the long-end bond sell off As long-end government bond yields continue to rise, identifying the culprit for the latest sell-off becomes ever more pressing. 2nd September 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big a risk is contagion from France? Contagion from France’s government bond market to the rest of the euro-zone will probably be muted and short-lived unless France’s own crisis becomes much bigger than we expect. This is partly because... 2nd September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (August) The small increase in headline inflation to 2.1% in August makes little difference for policymakers at the ECB who look certain to leave interest rates unchanged at next week’s meeting and probably... 2nd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Worse to come for Swiss GDP, French yields to rise While Swiss GDP grew at a decent rate in the first half of the year, the delay in agreeing a trade with the US means that a contraction in Q3 would not be surprising. But we still think that a deal... 29th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (August 2025) August’s business and consumer survey from the European Commission adds to the impression that the damage from higher US tariffs has been limited. Nevertheless, economic growth remains sluggish. 28th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone prime recovery to date like the GFC, but different Solid rental growth has meant the recovery in euro-zone prime property values to date has matched the post-GFC period despite a more limited contribution from yield falls. A softer rental outlook... 28th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the UK (or France) heading for an IMF bail-out? The UK’s fiscal and balance of payments position may be far from a picture of health but speculation that it may be forced to turn to the IMF for a bailout is far-fetched. The risks are greater for... 27th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update French PM's gambit will not end budget stalemate The French prime minister’s decision to call an early vote of confidence is most likely to trigger his replacement with yet another prime minister or (less likely) fresh legislative elections. Either... 26th August 2025 · 3 mins read
