Europe Economics Update Will Europe’s populists copy Italy’s fiscal restraint? In principle, the relatively cautious fiscal policy that Giorgia Meloni’s government has followed in Italy offers a model that other right-wing populist parties could follow. But in practice, with the... 2nd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economic Outlook US leads, others lag, in uneven global economy The global economy will grow by a solid yet unspectacular 3% in 2026-27, but the sources of growth are becoming increasingly unbalanced. The US will be the best performing major advanced economy, as... 2nd October 2025 · 45 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Conversions reinforce a strong Spanish office rent outlook Office rental growth in Spain’s major markets will be underpinned by rapid employment growth and relatively low rates of hybrid work. And these trends are further supported by healthy conversion... 2nd October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Italy’s good fiscal performance continue? Italy’s public finances have held up better than expected over the past two years or so despite the economy remaining sluggish. That is partly due to policies that pre-date Giorgia Meloni’s government... 1st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (September) The small rise in euro-zone HICP inflation in September will not shift the consensus at the ECB that rates are in a “good place” for now. However, we think inflation will fall to only 1.5% by December... 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB "in a good place", for now... We think that the ECB will change its view that interest rates are “in a good place” next year. Growth looks set to remain slow by international standards, and we suspect that it will be weaker than... 29th September 2025 · 28 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Weak recovery despite lower interest rates The extension of the ECB easing cycle into 2026 will support real estate markets. However, a softer economic outlook and the narrow spread of property to government bond yields mean even our upwardly... 29th September 2025 · 26 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (September 2025) September’s business and consumer survey from the European Commission adds to the evidence that euro-zone GDP growth remained subdued in Q3, while inflationary pressures are under control. 29th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Health care may not have a speedy recovery, despite tariff relief The share prices of some of the world’s largest health care companies have rallied a bit today, despite Donald Trump’s announcement yesterday of a tariff of 100% on US imports of branded or patented... 26th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone activity and sentiment remain subdued Economic growth in the euro-zone is likely to pick up a bit heading into next year, but we suspect that the improvement will be more muted than most anticipate. And the data released this week show no... 26th September 2025 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response US Tariff Announcement The announcement by President Trump that, starting October 1st, the US will impose 100% tariffs on imports of pharmaceutical products and a 25% tariff on imports of heavy trucks is not quite as big a... 26th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Estimates point to steady euro-zone all-property yields further ahead Fair-value calculations which incorporate rental expectations suggest euro-zone all-property yields should hold steady in the medium term. However, the outlook differs by sector, with rises still... 25th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (September 2025) The fall in the German Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in September contrasts with the big improvement in the Composite PMI and casts some doubt over hopes that the German economy might be finally... 24th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (September 2025) September’s flash PMIs suggest that the euro-zone economy grew fairly slowly again in Q3 and that price pressures eased. 23rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone inflation risks now to the downside The ECB’s battle against high inflation has been won and, in our view, it is more likely that inflation undershoots than overshoots the 2% target over the next few years. As a result, we think the ECB... 22nd September 2025 · 11 mins read
Global Economics Update Inside the latest central bank decisions We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to unpack the September meetings of major advanced economy central banks. (Recording available here.) The key takeaway was that in the US, markets seem to... 22nd September 2025 · 7 mins read
