Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (November 2024) The EC survey was little changed in November and is still consistent with weak growth at best, while the price components suggest that inflationary pressures remain sticky. 28th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus The slow agony of Germany’s auto industry One of the many problems that the next German government will have to contend with is the struggling car sector. Unfortunately, the sector’s challenges are only likely to intensify given the prospect... 27th November 2024 · 29 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: US tariffs – How they’ll work, what they’ll do and how the world will respond 1732631400 Donald Trump’s latest threat to impose massive tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada are a reminder that this is a very real threat to the global economic outlook.
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (November 2024) The fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in November left it even deeper into recessionary territory and is consistent with our view that the German economy will continue to struggle in the... 25th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Investors’ focus shifting from EZ inflation to growth November’s weaker-than-expected Flash PMIs for the euro-zone prompted investors to lower their policy rate expectations. Even so, we still expect more easing than implied in money markets, so we think... 22nd November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Revised bond yield forecasts, Trump and the SNB Our new bond yield forecasts show US and German bond yields diverging slightly over the coming year as monetary policy is loosened more aggressively in Europe. Meanwhile, we think a universal US... 22nd November 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Focus What will US protectionism mean for the euro-zone? Our base case is that protectionist policies from the US next year will have only a small economic impact on Europe, but the fallout will vary between countries and there are risks of greater damage... 22nd November 2024 · 20 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s labour market sizzling Spain’s economy is outperforming the euro-zone as a whole, and the difference is also evident in the labour market, which is still tightening at a decent pace in Spain. There now appears to be little... 21st November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2024) Stable property yields and solid rental growth supported a second rise in prime all-property values in Q3. While there is still likely to be upward pressure on yields in some markets, property values... 21st November 2024 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Update Jump in negotiated wage growth largely due to one-offs The jump in euro-zone negotiated wage growth in Q3, to a record high of 5.4%, was mostly due to one-off payments in Germany. Wage growth elsewhere was little changed. With headline inflation around 2%... 20th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment to pick up but remain sluggish in 2025 The recovery in euro-zone real estate investment has been weak in 2024, with total activity in the first three quarters little changed on 2023’s near-record-lows. However, prospects for 2025 are... 20th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Underlying price pressures fading gradually Services inflation in the euro-zone has been stuck around 4% for the past 12 months, but there are good reasons to expect it to decline significantly next year. We think that core inflation will... 19th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Larger rate cuts increase the scope for property yield falls The larger and faster pace of ECB rate cuts we now expect means euro-zone government bond yields are likely to be lower in the coming years than previously forecast. This is positive for property... 19th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t worry about euro-dollar parity We think that the euro will fall to parity against the US dollar next year but will strengthen against some other currencies, such as the renminbi, and on a trade-weighted basis we forecast it to be... 18th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Initial thoughts on commodities and Trump tariffs While it is uncertain exactly how Trump will approach tariffs during a second term, China will clearly be in the firing line and commodities could be caught in the crossfire. Iron and steel, and to a... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
