Europe Economics Germany Flash Inflation (July) The increase in German inflation to nearly 4% on the CPI measure was partly due to last year’s VAT cut and partly due to rising energy and food inflation, all of which should prove short-lived... 29th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (July) Economic sentiment in the euro-zone continued to improve in July as restrictions were lifted further. The EC Survey also showed that persistent input shortages are causing price pressures to grow... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property A primer on European residential property Less favourable demand fundamentals and less scope for yield compression mean that European residential returns are likely to be lower in the coming years than over the previous decade. An analysis of... 27th July 2021 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Inflation won’t surge in the euro-zone like in the US We think that euro-zone headline inflation will rise further than most expect in the second half of this year. But rather than reaching the levels of around 5% seen in the US, it is likely to top out... 27th July 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics German Ifo Survey (July) The small decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in July suggests that the rebound in Germany may be losing some momentum. But Germany will still post very rapid GDP growth in both Q2 and Q3 and... 26th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect E-Z “peripheral” spreads to remain low While we no longer expect peripheral spreads to narrow this year, we still think that they will remain close to their current levels, which are close to the lowest since the Global Financial Crisis. 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Negative rates and QE forever? The change in the ECB’s policy guidance, announced yesterday, strengthens our view that the Bank will leave its deposit rate unchanged at -0.5% until beyond 2025 and will continue with large-scale... 23rd July 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July) July’s euro-zone PMIs confirm that the economy is still rebounding rapidly and that price pressures are continuing to build. While the Delta variant poses a risk to our above-consensus GDP forecasts... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics ECB reinforces commitment to keep rates low The ECB followed through on its strategy review today by raising the bar for interest rate hikes in language which was probably a touch more dovish than expected. The Bank made no change to its... 22nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prime Brussels offices to fare better than most More remote working is pushing all occupiers to reassess their office space, but we think that rental growth for prime offices in Brussels should hold up better than the wider market. 22nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Delta variant won’t trigger fresh lockdowns The pick-up in the euro-zone’s vaccine rollout means governments are unlikely to reintroduce significant new restrictions even as cases rise. So while the Delta variant might take some of the gloss... 21st July 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Spare capacity in labour market mutes wage pressures We now expect the euro-zone economy to grow more quickly this year than the consensus or the ECB expects. Inflation too will be higher than others are forecasting as supply shortages persist into the... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Strong rebound and temporary rise in inflation The euro-zone is on the way to an almost full recovery. We expect Germany to regain its pre-pandemic level of activity later this year and the tourist-dependent southern countries to do so next year... 16th July 2021 · 33 mins read
Europe Economics New guidance will set the bar higher for rate hikes The ECB will set out next week what its new strategy implies for its monetary policy. Having nudged up the target to a symmetrical 2% and stressed that it will tolerate some overshooting, the... 15th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) The euro-zone’s industrial sector took a step backwards in May as the global semiconductor shortage hit auto production. Supply disruptions look set to drag on for a while yet, constraining the sector... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Investors’ ECB rate hike expectations look premature There has been very little market reaction to the ECB raising its inflation target to 2%, probably because the change was broadly in line with expectations. But markets are discounting ECB rate hikes... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
