Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (July) & France GDP (Q2) July’s decline in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is consistent with our view that, after probably slowing to 0.2% q/q in Q2, GDP growth in the currency union will remain subdued over... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tiered ECB deposit rate would be a dovish signal If it is introduced (which is far from certain) a tiered deposit rate would reduce the cost of negative interest rates for banks, but it would do so by only a trivial amount. Its main purpose would be... 24th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) July’s euro-zone PMI survey points to continued weak GDP growth and declining price pressures, bolstering the case for the ECB to loosen policy at tomorrow’s meeting. 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q2 2019) The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy will remain sluggish. The euro-zone does not seem to be on the brink of recession, but continued slow growth should... 23rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the ECB spring a surprise next week? Next week, we think that the ECB will say that interest rates will remain “at present or lower” levels at least through the middle of next year, and that it “stands ready” to re-start QE. Hints at a... 19th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is the euro-zone economy turning a corner? The improvement in some of the recent economic data suggests that the risk of an imminent recession is low. But it does not suggest that the economy is about to rebound. We expect growth to remain... 17th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) May’s strong increase in euro-zone industrial production should allay concerns about the wider economy falling into recession, but it is still consistent with GDP growth slowing in the second quarter... 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will property yields be lower for longer? With euro-zone bond yields falling, this creates the potential for a further compression of property yields. In our view, there will not be much of an immediate impact, though it is becoming more... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB won’t be a QE Lagarde this time The continued weakness of the economic data, together with Christine Lagarde’s nomination as the new ECB president, makes us more confident that the Bank will loosen policy in the coming months... 5th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update E-Z government bond yields likely to be low for longer Christine Lagarde’s nomination as ECB President makes us even more optimistic about the near-term outlook for government bonds in the euro-zone and reinforces our view that corporate bonds there will... 5th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) May’s euro-zone retail sales data were weaker than expected and support our view that GDP growth in the bloc slowed to 0.2% q/q in Q2. Looking ahead, lower inflation is likely to raise households’... 4th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Final PMIs (Jun.) While the Composite PMIs for June were flat for Spain and edged up for Italy, the overall picture remains one of weak economic growth in the second quarter. And with price pressures remaining weak... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update New ECB boss to be at least as dovish as Draghi Yesterday’s announcement that Christine Lagarde will succeed Mario Draghi leaves us even more confident that the ECB will loosen monetary policy in the coming months. We think the Bank is likely to... 3rd July 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update A deep dive into euro-zone core inflation The jump in euro-zone core inflation in June seems to have largely reflected temporary factors. More generally, a range of measures of underlying inflation suggest that price pressures remain subdued... 2nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Unemployment (May), Manuf. PMI (Jun.) May’s euro-zone unemployment data showed that the steady recovery in the region’s labour market continued, despite the likely slowdown in GDP growth in Q2. But with business surveys remaining gloomy... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) While headline HICP inflation came in unchanged in June, at 1.2%, the extent of the increase in services and core inflation was a bit of a surprise. But the increase in core inflation seems to have... 28th June 2019 · 2 mins read
