Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Nov.) November’s final euro-zone PMI is consistent with very anaemic GDP growth in Q4 and the national indices point to continued weakness in both Germany and Italy, while France and Spain remain relative... 4th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) November’s jump in inflation is unlikely to be the beginning of a sustained upward trend in price pressures. With employment growth slowing and slack in the labour market increasing, wage growth seems... 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Nov.) Despite November’s small increase in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), the index suggests that the economy is unlikely to have gained pace in Q4. 28th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Policy inaction will delay euro-zone recovery This week, Christine Lagarde’s first speech as ECB president and the account of October’s policy meeting suggested that monetary policy will be on autopilot for some time. There seems to be little... 22nd November 2019 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) & German GDP (Q3) The small decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI for November confirms that the economy is still struggling. One silver lining is that the pace at which German industrial output is contracting appears... 22nd November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Only small fiscal stimulus for the euro-zone next year Calls for much looser fiscal policy in the euro-zone are falling on deaf ears. While the Netherlands and Germany have set out fiscal stimuli for 2020, each has past form for running tighter policy... 21st November 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Are negative policy rates hurting EZ bank lending? In our view, claims that the ECB’s negative deposit rate is weighing heavily on bank lending in the euro-zone are wide of the mark. In fact, we suspect that policymakers will cut the deposit rate even... 19th November 2019 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Services sector slowdown to gather pace The euro-zone’s services sector has held up relatively well so far this year. However, we expect spill-overs from the industrial recession and slowing employment growth to take a toll in the coming... 18th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (second estimate), Employment (Q3) While the second estimate of Q3 GDP for the euro-zone was unchanged, and Germany narrowly avoided a technical recession, we think that the cyclical downturn in the region still has further to run. Our... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) Although euro-zone industrial production edged up in September, the sector still fared very poorly in Q3 overall and the business surveys suggest that the region’s industrial recession has further to... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EC growth forecasts still too optimistic Regardless of the outcome of Spain’s latest general election on Sunday, we think its economy is set to slow. Meanwhile, Germany’s economy should have narrowly avoided a technical recession in Q3 (data... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Outlook remains bleak Although the euro-zone economy grew by more than expected in Q3, helped by solid growth in France and Spain, the overall picture remains fairly gloomy. Euro-zone GDP expanded by only 0.2% q/q, and... 6th November 2019 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) & Final PMIs (Oct.) September’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest household consumption made a positive contribution to GDP growth in Q3. Meanwhile, the upward revision to October’s euro-zone Composite PMI still leaves... 6th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3), Unemp. (Sept.) & HICP (Oct.) The slightly better-than-expected euro-zone Q3 GDP figure does not alter the fact that the region is expanding at only a very modest pace. What’s more, forward-looking indicators, along with the... 31st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Oct) & France GDP (Q3) The decline in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in October adds to the evidence that the economy started Q4 on weak footing. 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How will the ECB change under Christine Lagarde? As part of its forthcoming review under Christine Lagarde, the ECB is likely to change its inflation target and make its voting system more transparent. Further ahead, it will have bigger issues to... 29th October 2019 · 26 mins read
