Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Dec.) lthough the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) edged up again in December, the index still suggests that economic growth in the region was very weak at the end of last year. 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.) & Retail Sales (Nov.) December’s inflation data will provide some relief to policymakers at the ECB, but we are still sceptical that core inflation is about to start on a sustained upward trend. In our view, the Bank’s... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Final PMIs (Dec.) The euro-zone’s Composite PMI for December was revised up slightly, but taken together with the other available evidence, this still suggests that the economy grew by only 0.2% q/q in Q4. And Germany... 6th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly 2020 will be another disappointing year The latest data suggest that the euro-zone economy might have avoided a further slowdown in Q4 last year, adding to the evidence that growth is “bottoming out”. However, the economy seems to have... 3rd January 2020 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ troubles likely to re-emerge in 2020s The euro-zone is ending this decade in better shape than it ended the last one. But its fundamental problems have not been resolved, so we expect the region to face serious challenges in the decade to... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Predictions for the euro-zone in 2020 We think the euro-zone will continue to struggle in the first half of 2020 as Germany and Italy remain close to recession and inflation stays well below target, prompting the ECB to loosen policy... 19th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What do equities suggest about euro-zone property? Although the anaemic performance of the euro-zone economy is expected to weigh on occupier demand, real estate equity markets suggest that confidence in property markets has held up. We think that... 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Flash PMIs (Dec.) and Hourly Labour Costs (Q3) The flash PMIs for December will disappoint those looking forward to a happier New Year. Indeed, they point to euro-zone GDP being almost flat in Q4 and a continued industrial recession. Looking... 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update More policy easing still likely under Lagarde While Ms Lagarde’s assessment of the outlook in today’s press conference was slightly less gloomy than Mr Draghi’s in October, this does not change our view that the ECB will loosen policy again... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s sharp fall in euro-zone industrial production adds to the evidence that the sector’s troubles are far from over. We expect the sector to remain in recession at the start of next year. 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Economic activity still losing momentum Hopes that the euro-zone is turning a corner look premature. The latest activity data have been disappointing, with retail sales falling in October and national data pointing to another decline in... 10th December 2019 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Gloomy data ahead of Lagarde’s ECB debut Data released this week have reinforced our view that economic growth is likely to slow in the coming quarters. Next week, Christine Lagarde’s debut press conference will be watched closely for any... 6th December 2019 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to loosen policy before policy review is complete With little chance of any policy action at the ECB meeting next Thursday, the focus will be on how President Lagarde performs in the press conference and on the scope and timetable for the planned... 5th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Lower yields to support capital values We expect a further slowdown in euro-zone economic growth in 2020 to weigh on rental growth. However, with interest rates set to be cut next year and remain at this low level, there isn’t likely to be... 5th December 2019 · 30 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3, breakdown) & Retail Sales (Oct.) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q3 confirmed that the economy remained sluggish, with net trade continuing to weigh on growth. And we doubt that things will get any better in the coming... 5th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Examining the case for euro-zone equities Our baseline assumption is that the returns in common currency from mid- and large-cap equities will be similar in the euro-zone and the US in 2020, after a decade in which those in the US have... 4th December 2019 · 5 mins read
