ECB Watch Bank to cut deposit rate but wait before starting QE2 After policymakers spelt out in July that they were planning to announce more policy stimulus soon, there is sure to be some action when they meet in Frankfurt next Thursday. We think this will... 5th September 2019 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMIs (Aug.) The small upward revision to August’s euro-zone PMI leaves it still pointing to slow GDP growth at the start of H2. And the fall in retail sales in July suggests that consumption started Q3 on weak... 4th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) With headline and core inflation unchanged in August, at 1.0% and 0.9% respectively, and unemployment also unchanged at 7.5% in July, the scene is set for the ECB to loosen policy further. 30th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Aug.) August’s small increase in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) doesn’t change the big picture of a bleak outlook for the euro-zone economy, and nor does it alter our view that the ECB... 29th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update The EU’s new energy policy will be no game-changer The policies of the next European Commission are likely to speed up the EU’s ongoing transition towards a greener energy future. However, its impact will probably not live up to expectations. 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prime office yields still obeying Newton’s First Law Plummeting bond yields in 2019 have dramatically improved property valuations, supporting the outlook for property prices. Indeed, we now think that euro-zone prime office yields can extend their... 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB preparing for action and perhaps a new target The account of the ECB Governing Council’s July meeting, published this week, confirmed that policymakers are planning to loosen policy in September. Meanwhile, the flash PMIs for August suggested... 23rd August 2019 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account points to rate cuts and target change The account of the Governing Council’s July meeting shows that there was broad support for further policy easing in September and perhaps for a change to the inflation target fairly soon. It leaves us... 22nd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) The trivial increase in the euro-zone Composite PMI in August still leaves it consistent with feeble GDP growth this quarter and won’t put the ECB off easing policy next month. 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Slowing rental growth leading to investor caution There has been a gradual slowing in rental growth in the last couple of quarters, with a particularly large drop-off in retail rental growth. This has been echoed in the investment market, with all... 19th August 2019 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What would early elections mean for Italy? Italy now looks set for an early election. Opinion polls suggest that a this would deliver a right-wing coalition, led by the League, which we suspect would be even more likely to clash with the EU... 9th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Risk to the euro-zone from the trade war is rising The risk to the euro-zone from the US-China trade war is rising. And it seems increasingly likely that the US will raise tariffs on auto imports from the EU, which could tip Germany into recession... 8th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Economic weakness to continue to weigh on equities The recent sell-off in global equity markets has hit the euro-zone harder than the US, but we doubt that this will continue. Equities in Germany have performed particularly poorly, which is... 7th August 2019 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Jul.) July’s final euro-zone PMI is consistent with continued weak GDP growth at the start of Q3. And the PMI surveys also confirmed that Italy and Germany remain the currency union’s weak spots. While... 5th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June) The jump in retail sales in June follows a fairly sharp contraction in May and feeble growth in April, and means that retail sales growth slowed in Q2 overall. With the boost from falling inflation... 2nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2), Unemp. (June) & HICP (July) The raft of weak economic data published this morning strengthens the case for the ECB to announce a package of stimulus measures at its next meeting in September. 31st July 2019 · 2 mins read
