Europe Economics Update Inflation to fall despite higher oil prices Data due to be released tomorrow are set to show a jump in inflation in April. But given that this rise will largely be the result of Easter timing effects, it is unlikely to be sustained. And while... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are the euro-zone activity surveys too pessimistic? The official euro-zone activity data for Q1 were much stronger than the message from the business and consumer surveys. But we still think that the consistent weakness of the survey evidence bodes ill... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) & Unemployment (Mar.) The first estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q1 and the labour market data for March were encouraging. But the timelier survey indicators have continued to weaken, and we expect the global economy to remain... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bund yields likely to fall further, but rebound next year We expect the yield of 10-year German government bonds to continue to drop this year, as investors factor in the prospect of even looser monetary policy in the euro-zone and demand for safe havens... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stronger Q1 GDP growth would not be sustained The reasonably strong run of hard data for the first two months of the year has prompted us to revised up our estimate of Q1 GDP growth to 0.3% q/q. However, the downbeat tone of the business surveys... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) The disappointing flash PMIs for April suggest that, despite some stronger industrial production data in the first couple of months of this year, the euro-zone is not yet out of the woods. They also... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Economic growth to remain weak GDP growth in the euro-zone is likely to be only slightly stronger this year than in the second half of 2018. Hopes for a sharp rebound in export demand will probably be disappointed, meaning that the... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s industrial production data suggest that output in the sector performed a little better in Q1 than at the end of last year, but the sector is still struggling. And with global economic... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Italian & German equities likely to lag rest of the E-Z We think that euro-zone stock markets will generally fall in the rest of 2019 as global growth remains weak and appetite for risk wanes. Equities in Germany and Italy will fare particularly poorly, in... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB will still need to do more to support the economy President Draghi’s comments at today’s press conference suggest that the ECB will announce the terms of the TLTRO-III programme in June, which we suspect will be more generous than previous TLTROs... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q1 2019) The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey suggests that economic growth will remain weak. This will probably encourage the ECB to make the terms of its new TLTROs – which are likely to be confirmed in June –... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly More weak data ahead of April ECB meeting This week brought more disappointing data for the euro-zone. The ECB is unlikely to respond by loosening policy further at its meeting next Wednesday, but we think that it won’t be long before the... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Policymakers to pause in April After making some fairly big changes in early March, the ECB will probably be happy to leave things as they are at next week’s meeting. President Draghi will have no choice but to give a downbeat... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB worrying about downside risks The account of the ECB’s 7th March monetary policy meeting makes gloomy reading. It confirms that policymakers were worried about downside risks to their growth and inflation forecasts, even though... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economy close to stalling We suspect that GDP increased by only 0.1% in the first quarter of this year. The divergence between the manufacturing and services sectors has, if anything, increased, and this in turn has... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) & Final PMIs (Mar.) February’s retail sales data suggest that household spending growth picked up a bit in Q1. But the Composite PMI, together with other surveys, suggests that GDP growth might have slowed. 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
