Europe Economics Update Expanded vaccine coverage to keep Delta in check The recent fall in aggregate new daily Covid cases in the euro-zone, largely due to the success of the vaccination programme, means that governments in the region should be able to avoid re-imposing... 2nd September 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Jul.) & Final Mfg PMIs (Aug.) The fall in euro-zone unemployment in July appears to be down to a decline in the overall labour force rather than an increase in employment, highlighting that the labour market recovery still has a... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation & the outlook for E-Z & US Yields While we think that 10-year government bond yields in both the US and the euro-zone will rise over the next few years, we expect increases in yields to be much smaller in the euro-zone given the... 31st August 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Spanish retail rents to rebound from next year We expect a recovery in domestic and foreign spending along with online penetration rates below most other euro-zone markets to support moderate growth in Spanish prime retail rents over the 2022-25... 31st August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Getting a handle on euro-zone wage data Euro-zone wage data are published only quarterly, and with a long lag, and have been distorted by pandemic-related effects. So it will be another six months before we get a clearer idea of the... 31st August 2021 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Business surveys point to continued recovery The business surveys for August published this week provided some reassurance that the euro-zone economy is continuing to grow at a decent pace. And the decline in the forward-looking components is... 27th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB may not agree taper until December The account of the ECB’s July meeting confirms that a minority of Governing Council members objected to the dovish shift in the Bank’s interest rate guidance. Partly because of this, we now think the... 26th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (July) Year-on-year money and lending growth has fallen sharply this year and we think it will decline further. With the subdued level of economic activity also weighing on consumer prices, we don’t think... 26th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Investment to make sizeable contribution to growth Business surveys suggest that global supply problems are becoming a drag on euro-zone investment, but these problems should fade going into 2022. As long as the Delta variant doesn’t halt the economic... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (August) The second successive decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in August provides further evidence that Germany’s recovery is losing some momentum, partly due to supply chain difficulties in the... 25th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany’s recovery taking longer than expected Data published today show that the weakness in German GDP in Q2 was due to the low level of household spending. Consumption should increase sharply in Q3. But with manufacturers struggling, the... 24th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German election result in the balance After a sharp rise in support for the SDP the election result looks set to be very close. Whatever the outcome, economic policy will not change very much, but fiscal policy may be slightly less... 24th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) August’s PMIs suggest that growth slowed only slightly despite persistent supply problems and activity approaching more normal levels. They also imply that price pressures are no longer intensifying... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Delta variant not yet putting brakes on recovery The timeliest data show little evidence that concerns about the Delta variant are causing economic activity to fall outright. But with output getting closer to normal levels and the virus situation... 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of rising inflation expectations Market-based measures of inflation expectations have risen during the past few months, but they are still consistent with our view that inflation will remain well below target over the medium term... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Final HICP (July) The final euro-zone inflation data for July show that global supply problems have not pushed up goods prices dramatically, and “re-opening inflation” has been limited so far. We think that base... 18th August 2021 · 2 mins read
