Europe Economics Update ECB to increase corporate bond purchases next year We think that the ECB will increase its monthly bond-buying next year by purchasing more corporate debt. This would lead to a marked pick-up in bond issuance, but only a small increase in investment. 2nd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Aug.) Euro-zone employment growth looks set to slow over the rest of this year, and remain subdued in 2020. So we expect wage growth to weaken too, eventually prompting the ECB to loosen policy again. 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Sep.) The renewed fall in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) adds to the evidence that the region’s economy slowed further in Q3. For now, the weakness is concentrated in the manufacturing... 27th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone economy to slow, forcing ECB to do more We are cutting our forecast for euro-zone GDP growth in 2020 and expect inflation to stay close to 1%. Moreover, we think the ECB will revise its inflation target in the coming months, then cut its... 24th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) September’s fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI supports our view that economic growth in the currency union has slowed in Q3. And with no sign that core inflation is rising, and the ECB’s latest... 23rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Other euro-zone governments unlikely to go Dutch The announcement of a sizeable fiscal stimulus by the Netherlands is unlikely to be repeated by other euro-zone governments, disappointing the ECB’s hopes that fiscal policy will provide much more... 20th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update TLTROs won’t turn the economy around The surprisingly low uptake of the ECB’s TLTROs today was probably a one-off, and uptake in December is likely to be stronger. But even if it is, we doubt that this will provide much of a boost to the... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update French industry looks resilient to German slowdown We expect French industrial production growth to slow in the coming year or so. But it should continue to outperform German industry thanks to its focus on less cyclical products such as food, energy... 18th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Services sector will continue to slow The euro-zone’s manufacturing downturn has dragged services growth lower this year. And with both employment and wage growth weakening, services will probably slow a little further next year. 17th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What more could the ECB do? Even after yesterday’s loosening of monetary policy, the ECB is unlikely to hit its inflation target. The Bank is not yet out of ammunition, but we doubt that further easing would do much good. 13th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) The increase in nominal hourly labour cost growth to 2.7% in Q2 masks significant differences between countries and is partly due to a reduction in hours worked, rather than higher wages. We continue... 13th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Open-ended QE unlikely to reboot economy With today’s policy decision, Mario Draghi appears to have locked the ECB into QE for several years beyond his time in office. While the move was initially welcomed by financial markets, we doubt that... 12th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (July) July’s small fall in euro-zone industrial production marked a soft start to Q3 and the surveys suggest that the downturn will continue, encouraging the ECB that it is right to loosen policy later... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Further falls in yields to sustain capital value growth With the euro-zone slowdown underway, we think that the ECB will loosen monetary policy before the year is out, meaning bond yields are set to remain negative for some time. As a result, yield... 11th September 2019 · 30 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB will need to revise its growth forecasts down The latest economic data suggest that the euro-zone economy will continue to grow slowly in the second half of the year, so the ECB will need to revise its forecasts down next week. We also think that... 6th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Services sector holding up well for now In the face of the downturn in manufacturing, the services sector is still holding up well. Indeed, the business activity index of the services PMI survey suggests that output in the sector is growing... 5th September 2019 · 11 mins read
