Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3), Unemp. (Sept.) & HICP (Oct.) The slightly better-than-expected euro-zone Q3 GDP figure does not alter the fact that the region is expanding at only a very modest pace. What’s more, forward-looking indicators, along with the... 31st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Oct) & France GDP (Q3) The decline in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in October adds to the evidence that the economy started Q4 on weak footing. 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How will the ECB change under Christine Lagarde? As part of its forthcoming review under Christine Lagarde, the ECB is likely to change its inflation target and make its voting system more transparent. Further ahead, it will have bigger issues to... 29th October 2019 · 26 mins read
Europe Economics Update Draghi bows out, but further policy support to come Outgoing President Mario Draghi defended the ECB’s decision last month to introduce a raft of measures and downplayed the Governing Council’s divisions. As euro-zone growth is set to remain weak and... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) October’s marginal rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI is fairly disappointing after September’s large fall and reinforces our view that economic growth in the currency union is at a virtual... 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update E-Z equities will fall by less than US equities in our view Equities in the euro-zone have outperformed those in the US since early October. While we expect this trend to continue, we think that both will fall in the rest of this year, as global growth slows... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q3 2019) The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey shows that firms’ demand for credit is softening, adding to evidencethat the euro-zone economy will remain sluggish and in need of further policy support. 22nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Further thoughts (and charts) on the auto sector Our best guess is that vehicle production in the euro-zone will stabilise at around its current level over the next year. If so, the sector would subtract 0.2% from GDP this year, but neither add to... 21st October 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No fiscal boost in 2020, Brexit deal on a knife edge Euro-zone governments have promised a fiscal stimulus in 2020, but we doubt that they will live up to their promises. Meanwhile, we expect the ECB to leave policy settings unchanged on Thursday at Mr... 18th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone close to recession Economic growth has slowed to a crawl and is likely to remain anaemic until well into next year, even in the absence of a fresh external shock. Germany is probably in a recession already and we think... 15th October 2019 · 30 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s small rise in euro-zone industrial production is nowhere near enough to offset the previous two months’ declines, and so output in Q3 as a whole is likely to have fallen sharply. This... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Divisions at the ECB won’t prevent further easing The national industrial data released this week suggest that euro-zone production rose in August. But this looks like a blip not a turning point. With growth set to slow and inflation remain subdued... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account acknowledges divisions in the Council Given how much has been said (and leaked) about the ECB’s 12th September meeting, there was little scope for fresh revelations in today’s account. But the report is consistent with our view that more... 10th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slowing to a crawl There have been one or two positive signs in the past week or so, such as the increase in German industrial production in August. But the overall picture remains gloomy. Indeed, at face value the... 8th October 2019 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly US-EU aircraft dispute increases trade war risks The latest data suggest that euro-zone growth will continue to slow, and the WTO’s decision to grant the US permission to raise tariffs on the EU increases the risk that the bloc is drawn into the... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) The downward revision to September’s euro-zone PMI leaves it consistent with zero growth at the end of Q3, as the contraction in Germany’s economy appears to have accelerated and spread to the... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
