Europe Economics Update Latest bazooka may lack ammunition Plans for the euro-zone bail-out fund to purchase sovereign debt look unlikely to have a lasting effect on governments’ borrowing costs unless accompanied by a significant increase in firepower. 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What is the optimum re-configuration of the euro-zone? The economically optimal re-configuration of the euro-zone would involve the survival of a core Northern euro incorporating Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Finland, and Belgium. France’s position... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain moving quickly towards a sovereign bail-out The recent further rise in Spanish government bond yields underlines the fact that the banking bailout will not address the country’s broader fiscal problems. A sovereign bail-out is all but... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jun.) June’s plunge in the headline German ZEW index provides further support for the view that the intensifying debt crisis is starting to hit Germany pretty hard. 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Would euro break-up trigger a Lehman-style global crisis? Our working assumption is that there will only be a limited break-up of the euro-zone, with Greece and one or two other smaller countries leaving this year or next but policy-makers managing the... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek election results do not eliminate exit risks New Democracy’s narrow victory in Sunday’s general election will ease concerns of an imminent and disorderly Greek exit from the euro-zone. But it remains unlikely that euro-zone policymakers will... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What’s left in the pot? Our prediction last week that market optimism towards the Spanish banking bail-out would be short-lived was borne out more quickly and decisively than even we had anticipated. Even by the standards of... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s industrial production figures provided a further indication that the euro-zone’s narrow escape from technical recession in Q1 will not last very long. 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office rents in Madrid likely to underperform relative to Barcelona Office rental values in Spain are forecast to fall by around 15% over 2012-13 as occupier demand weakens further. But on a city level, Madrid is exposed to greater downside risks than Barcelona. This... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banking union is only part of the answer Talk of an EU banking union provides some hope that policymakers are starting to address one of the potential triggers for a euro-zone break-up. But the prospect of a full-blown banking union seems as... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to fall further as euro-zone crisis deepens Headline inflation has dropped this year in most major economies and is likely to come down further as global growth falters, the euro-zone crisis deepens and commodity prices continue to fall. We... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lower office take-up volumes in store for Germany On past form, the drop in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) seen in Germany in the first quarter is a signal that a sharp fall in office take-up is likely to follow. We expect investment to fall... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets' optimism to prove short lived Growing speculation that Spain may be about to gain a banking sector bail-out with limited conditionality has raised expectations that euro-zone policymakers are beginning to take a more flexible... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain will need more help Spain’s banking bail-out may help to pull the country away from the centre of the euro-zone storm for a while. But we doubt that it is the only support that the country will need. 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Downturn spreading to the core The euro-zone may have narrowly avoided falling back into recession around the turn of the year, but timelier data have revealed that economic prospects are deteriorating. Activity surveys, such as... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What might a bail-out for Spain look like? Events are moving fast in Spain. After denials from Spanish government officials in recent months about the need for a bail-out, external assistance now seems inevitable with EU officials reported to... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
