Latin America Economics Update Spanish banking links revisited The direct exposure of Latin American banks to the deepening crisis in Spain is not as great as it seems at first sight. Even so, there are at least three ways in which the region’s banks could be hit... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What will a euro-zone break-up involve? Our view that the euro-zone needs to break up has become more widely accepted, but many commentators still argue that, in practical terms, it simply can’t happen. In this Focus, we outline the... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will falling bank deposits force Greece out? The recent rapid decline in Greek bank deposits underlines our warnings that it could be pressures on the banking system which provide the primary trigger for some form of euro-zone break-up. 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Just how hard would a Greek exit hit the ECB? One often advanced reason why Greece and other countries simply could not leave the euro-zone is the potential damage to the institution at the core of the currency union, the European Central Bank... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Portugal still next in line? Domestically, Portugal’s economy suffers from a broader range of factors dragging on medium-term growth prospects than its peripheral European peers. And externally, an imminent euro-zone exit by... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Economic slowdown triggers fall in capital values The euro-zone economy narrowly avoided falling back into a technical recession in Q1. But GDP merely stagnated and survey evidence point to renewed falls to come. In any event, the economic slowdown... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece: After the election A victory for Greece’s anti-bail-out parties in the June election would not necessarily mark the end of the bail-out deal. But any agreement which is reached between the Government and the troika is... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for euro-zone equities? The crisis in the euro-zone has exacted a heavy toll on regional stock markets. The sharp falls in equity prices have driven valuations down to attractive levels in many Member States, both relative... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Why and how will the euro-zone break up? Recent developments in the euro-zone have supported our view that a limited form of break-up will commence this year with the exit of Greece. But there are clear risks of a bigger break-up. 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Greek exit risks revisited With a few notable exceptions, Emerging Europe’s direct exposure to Greece is small. But the contagion from a disorderly Greek exit from the euro-zone would have disastrous consequences for the region... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would a Greek euro exit mean for commodities? Our central forecasts for industrial commodity prices already reflect some of the potential fall-out from a Greek euro exit. In particular, the economic and financial uncertainty is one of several... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Contagion is still the key danger The direct economic and financial effects of a Greek exit from the euro-zone need not be catastrophic. The key question remains whether the policymakers can prevent contagion effects from prompting a... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) & German ZEW (May) The provisional Q1 euro-zone GDP figures revealed that the economy has narrowly avoided a technical recession – temporarily. But the region remains worryingly reliant on growth in Germany and a... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Austerity without growth won’t work for Slovenia Slovenia’s debt problems are not as severe as those of other Southern European economies, but its public debt is nonetheless on an unsustainable footing. Moreover, given the backdrop of private sector... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Higher German inflation won’t rescue the periphery Suggestions that higher German inflation will allow the euro-zone’s peripheral economies to regain lost competitiveness look hopelessly optimistic. Those countries still face deep and prolonged wage... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s euro-zone industrial production data confirm the weak underlying health of the sector and support the view that the outlook for the wider economy remains pretty bleak. 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
