Europe Economics Update TARGET2 still points to big problems While the recent slight reduction in TARGET2 imbalances echoes other signs of improvement in the euro-zone, they still point to serious underlying problems in the economy and banking sector. 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMI Survey (Jan.) December’s fall in euro-zone retail sales confirmed that the consumer sector remains under strain and supported other evidence that GDP fell sharply in Q4. But January’s final PMI survey added to... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Are the green shoots of recovery emerging? Last week’s euro-zone data confirmed that the economy will probably fare better in Q1 than in Q4 2012. But for now at least the euro-zone business surveys remain in recession territory. Of course, if... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Unemployment (Dec.) January’s fall in euro-zone inflation is good news for consumers, but with unemployment still at a record high in December, incomes and spending will remain under severe strain. 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi to shrug off currency concerns The continued improvement in financial market conditions and surveys of economic activity has taken some of the pressure off the ECB this month. We expect the Bank to strike a relatively hawkish tone... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could the spread between yields in Paris and Munich reverse sign? Recent data show that the French economy is lagging behind Germany. If we are right that this divergence will grow, the low levels of property yields in Paris relative to Munich look unsustainable... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jan. 13) January’s rise in the euro-zone EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) provided further evidence that the improvement in market conditions seen over recent months is starting to have a moderately... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan. 13) The latest fiscal news from the periphery suggests that Greece, Ireland and Portugal met their fiscal goals for 2012 as a whole. 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can exporters shrug off the euro's rise? The euro’s appreciation over recent months may not necessarily prove disastrous for exporters. But with domestic demand likely to continue to contract, the strong currency reduces the chances of the... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Gap between Germany and France to widen Recent economic data suggest that France is lagging further behind Germany. If anything, we suspect that this gap will widen as the year goes on, leading tensions between the two countries to rise. 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec. 12) The latest euro-zone monetary data have brought further signs of an improvement in financial market conditions. However, lending to firms and households has continued to fall and seems unlikely to... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Currency concerns likely to deepen The ECB’s apparent refusal to engage in the recent outbreak of covert currency wars amongst global policymakers is partly understandable. After all, the single currency’s recent rise has been at least... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) January’s increase in the German Ifo business climate index provides further hope that the economy will fare better in Q1 than Q4. 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update LTRO repayments to give mixed signals The expected repayment of some ECB LTRO funding should add to signs that the region’s banking system is on the mend. But it will also underline the weakness of demand in the region and could fuel... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) January’s flash euro-zone Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) provided further evidence that the pace of contraction in the euro-zone economy has decelerated at the start of this year. But it is too... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What scope for a virtuous circle? While the improvement in financial market sentiment seen over recent months should have some beneficial effects on the euro-zone’s troubled economies, hopes that a “virtuous circle” will bring an end... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
