Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) September’s modest decline in the German Ifo is a relief after sharper falls in other survey indicators. But the continued decline in the Ifo’s expectations index suggests that the euro-zone’s... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Core policymakers resisting calls for decisive action Despite some dire pronouncements from global policymakers last week, there remain few signs that their counterparts in Europe are preparing to pull out all the stops and secure the future of the... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is the Italian retail market as safe an investment as some think? Anecdotal evidence suggests that many investors believe that the Italian retail market offers a better risk profile than offices or industrial. We are not convinced. Indeed, with consumer spending... 24th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q2) Irish Q2 GDP figures revealed that the economy expanded strongly in the first half of 2011 and add to evidence that Ireland is in a much better position than Greece and Portugal. But given the weak... 23rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) The fall in the euro-zone composite PMI below the theoretical 50 “no-change” barrier provides the strongest sign yet that the region is on the cusp of recession. 23rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Sep.) September’s drop in the German ZEW index is another sign that the economy is suffering increasingly from slowing global demand growth and troubles in the eurozone’s periphery. 21st September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Heading for another recession Last week proved to be another rollercoaster week for Greece. We now think that the Government may end up defaulting within months or perhaps even weeks. With concerns about banks’ solvency likely to... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final CPI (Aug.) & Employment (Q2) The latest euro-zone CPI inflation data do nothing to alter our view that underlying price pressures are not as strong as the ECB fears and that official interest rates may fall around the turn of the... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Jul.) On the face of it, July’s healthy rise in euro-zone industrial production suggests that near-term growth prospects may not be quite as bad as the business surveys have recently suggested. Nonetheless... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece’s second bail-out dead and buried? On the face of it, the recent fall in Greek sovereign CDS premia and press reports suggesting that Greece will receive the fourth tranche of loans from its bail-out package in March are encouraging... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deepening debt crisis points to new recession The debt crisis in the euro-zone has escalated rapidly over recent months and could now come to a head sooner than we had previously anticipated. This is likely to have severe near- to medium-term... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Core and periphery still at loggerheads More signs emerged last week that policymakers in the core economies are unwilling to soften the conditions attached to current or future bail-outs. For now, though, Greece looks set to bow to EC, ECB... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB paving the way for rate cuts After leaving interest rates on hold at 1.5% today, the ECB struck a downbeat tone regarding the economic outlook and acknowledged that risks to price stability are no longer on the upside, supporting... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Spanish industrial rental downturn has further to run July’s fall in Spanish industrial production extended the recent run of disappointing manufacturing data. The deteriorating outlook for occupier demand suggests that take-up levels will remain at very... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Greek and Portuguese GDP (Final Q2) & German Trade (Jul.) The Greek and Portuguese GDP figures for Q2 add to evidence that the recessions there will be more drawn out than either Government expects, suggesting that both economies will struggle to meet their... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Concerns about Italy to resurface The Italian Government’s recent indecision over the form of its latest fiscal package underlines the view that it is unlikely to implement the tough and unpopular measures needed to get the public... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
