Europe Economics Update France's problems threaten policymakers' firepower Growing concerns about France’s fiscal position have underlined the breadth of the euro-zone’s debt crisis. While a default seems unlikely at this stage, merely a credit rating downgrade would... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s fiscal measures will need to be seen to be believed On the face of it, the response of the Italian Government to the recent market mayhem appears pretty impressive. But we are sceptical as to whether the Government can deliver on its promises. 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB purchases may have little lasting impact The ECB’s purchases of Italian and Spanish Government bonds have drawn a very positive initial response in the markets. But there are some good reasons to doubt that it will be sustained. 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s debt dynamics worsen Prior to the announcement of the second rescue package for Greece, we noted that anything other than a very decisive response by European policymakers could prompt Italy and Spain to be dragged deeper... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian & Spanish GDP (Q2) & German Industrial Prod. (Jun.) The latest activity data from the euro-zone support our view that the recovery in the region as a whole is slowing sharply and cast further doubt on whether the likes of Italy and Spain can meet their... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Yield compression to halt as the recovery falters Non-euro-zone economies will not be immune from the slowdown now unfolding in the single currency area. A slower pace of economic growth coupled with concerns about potential contagion from the crisis... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Europe’s fiscal crisis will dent the occupier market recovery The weakening economic outlook for the euro-zone economy is likely to act as a brake on the recovery in commercial property markets over the next year or two. Rental value growth will moderate in most... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB softens its stance The ECB was bolder than expected today, upping its support for the banking sector and embarking on a new bout of bond purchases to help the peripheral economies. The Bank claimed that these measures... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jun.) & Final Comp. PMI (Jul.) June’s rise in euro-zone retail sales does little to alter our view that consumers remain badly placed to offset the slowdown in other sectors of the economy. 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Core economies weakening The past month has brought the firmest signs yet that the euro-zone economic slowdown is spreading from the region’s periphery to the northern “core”. July’s decline in the German Composite PMI was... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB action unlikely to stem the franc’s rise The Swiss National Bank’s decision to cut interest rates to almost zero and embark on a renewed bout of quantitative easing to stem the franc’s appreciation looks pretty bold. But we still think that... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB action unlikely to stem the franc’s rise The Swiss National Bank’s decision to cut interest rates to almost zero and embark on a renewed bout of quantitative easing to stem the franc’s appreciation looks pretty bold. But we still think that... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Stalling recovery will keep monetary policy loose The euro-zone fiscal crisis has not been resolved and will continue to act as a drag on euro-zone economic growth. While the prospects for economic growth look weakest in Portugal and Greece, there is... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Producer Prices (Jun.) The continued slowdown in producer price inflation, combined with July’s unexpected fall in headline consumer price inflation, supports our view that the ECB will probably keep interest rates on hold... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the new rescue package solve Greece’s problems? The new details on the second rescue package for Greece that have emerged over the past week or so have not altered our view that Greece’s outstanding debt burden remains unsustainably high. A second... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jul.) It is becoming increasingly clear that some of the peripheral economies will struggle to meet their budget deficit targets this year. And the new Greek package, like its predecessors, is unlikely to... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
