Europe Chart Pack Risk of a return to recession grows Developments over the past month suggest that there is a distinct possibility that the eurozone could soon slip back into recession. In particular, the ECB composite PMI now points to outright falls... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jul.) July’s surge in German industrial production will clearly ease fears of an imminent double-dip, but a renewed industrial slowdown seems inevitable before long. 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German court ruling points to troubles ahead Today’s ruling by the German Constitutional Court that bail-outs already undertaken by EU authorities were not unlawful might come as a relief to highly indebted euro-zone governments. But its... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece at risk of an imminent default? In the near term, Greece may continue to receive EU/IMF support and grudgingly meet the terms of its bail-out, despite the ongoing problems surrounding the second rescue package. But it is virtually... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack CEE markets still outperforming, but outlook is cloudy In contrast to Western European property markets, investment volumes in CEE have continued to rise. But the latest batch of disappointing economic data from Emerging Europe suggests that investor... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB’s action won’t rescue the Swiss economy Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to apply a limit of 1.20 per euro to the franc is a bold move which it has pledged to defend at all costs. But in the end, there may be limits to how many... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Swiss franc peg vs. euro provides only qualified relief The Swiss National Bank’s decision to effectively peg the Swiss franc to the euro will provide some qualified relief to Croatia, Hungary and Poland, which have significant amounts of Swiss franc debt... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will Japan follow Switzerland and cap the yen? The yen initially fell against the dollar following the Swiss move to set a formal limit on the strength of the franc. As it happens, we do not think that the authorities in Tokyo are ready to do the... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q2) The breakdown of euro-zone Q2 GDP added to evidence that the region is in the midst of a broad-based slowdown. With growth likely to remain subdued, even in the core, we still expect the euro-zone to... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB’s action won’t rescue the Swiss economy Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to apply a limit of 1.20 per euro to the franc is a bold move which it has pledged to defend at all costs. But in the end, there may be limits to how many... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone heading back into recession? The latest data have provided considerable support to our long-held view that the euro-zone recovery would grind to a halt. For now, we continue to expect a long period of near economic stagnation... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Is the ECB about to turn? The ECB is likely to soften its tone markedly at this month’s press conference amid signs of a significant deterioration in economic activity. With inflation risks probably no longer deemed to be on... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug.) Most of the peripheral economies have continued to make progress in reducing their government borrowing. But over the past month, the euro-zone debt crisis has spread further to the core economies... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Strong Swiss franc starts to hurt Swiss GDP data show that the economy held up relatively well in Q2, but exports have already begun to fall. As the Swiss National Bank struggles to prevent a renewed appreciation of the franc, the... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Strong Swiss franc starts to hurt Swiss GDP data show that the economy held up relatively well in Q2, but exports have already begun to fall. As the Swiss National Bank struggles to prevent a renewed appreciation of the franc, the... 1st September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Jul./Aug.) The news that euro-zone core inflation remained very low in August while unemployment rose further in July should reduce any remaining inflation fears at the ECB, adding to expectations of possible... 1st September 2011 · 1 min read
