Europe Economics Update Problems mount for the next Greek Government Markets have reacted positively to some signs of growing support for the pro-bail-out parties amongst Greek voters. But the formation of a government headed by New Democracy is unlikely to end deposit... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth plans look futile as German activity falls European policymakers focused again last week on the need for growth in the region, with Wednesday’s informal EU summit ending in pledges to speed up structural reforms, strengthen job creation and... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The euro has yet to price in a break-up Even after the recent falls, the euro exchange rate does not appear to incorporate a significant “break-up premium”. As such, we see scope for further considerable declines as the crisis continues. 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Greece survive outside the euro-zone? Many commentators argue that even though Greece might benefit from leaving the euro-zone in the long run, an immediate exit would result in the Government running out of money with potentially... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Falling PMIs show industrial demand ailing The flash manufacturing PMIs for both China and the euro-zone fell in May. Despite the prospect of some near-term support from policy easing in China, industrial commodity prices are likely to fall... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Composite PMI & German Ifo Survey (May) May’s business surveys confirmed the picture of falling economic activity in the euro-zone as a whole and suggest that the downturn has now really hit Germany. 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Belgium v the Netherlands: where is the rental value outlook best? For now, the Belgian economy is clearly outperforming its struggling neighbour, the Netherlands. But we expect both to contract this year and next, by a total of between 3% and 4%. Based on the... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How would break-up of the euro affect the rest of the world? A partial break-up of the euro-zone, with the weakest economies leaving and the core holding together, could be part of the solution to Europe’s problems, rather than the disaster that many assume. As... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What more can the ECB do to help? The renewed escalation of the euro-zone crisis has prompted calls for the European Central Bank to take more action. But whilst the ECB has scope to provide more support without taking unacceptable... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q1 12) GDP data for Q1 this year showed Norway’s economy expanding at a very healthy pace. But on balance, we think the adverse effects of the euro-zone debt crisis will prompt Norges Bank to cut its key... 22nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a country exiting the euro also have to leave the EU? Despite much confusion on this point, there does not appear to be any insurmountable legal barrier to a country leaving the euro and remaining within the European Union (EU), even without the prior... 22nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q1) GDP data for Q1 this year showed Norway’s economy expanding at a very healthy pace. But on balance, we think the adverse effects of the euro-zone debt crisis will prompt Norges Bank to cut its key... 22nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-bonds can't keep the euro-zone together Calls for jointly issued “euro-bonds” are growing louder again. But they are unlikely to be implemented quickly or effectively enough to prevent some form of euro-zone fragmentation. 22nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update GOEF liquidations dampen medium-term European property outlook In a worst case scenario, over the next five years, some €36bn worth of European property assets could be liquidated by German open-ended property funds (GOEFs). Our downbeat views on the European... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The consequences of a euro-zone break-up Markets have come around to our long-held view that some form of euro-zone break-up is likely, but opinion remains divided on the likely economic and financial fall-out. While even a limited and well... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The exit path becomes clearer Developments last week shed more light on the course of events which could culminate in the exit of Greece from the euro-zone. The failure of the political parties to form a coalition or even appoint... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
