Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jun.) June’s EC business and consumer survey dealt a further blow to hopes that sustained strong growth in the euro-zone’s core economies might help to ease the crisis in the periphery. 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Jun.) June’s CPI figures suggest that German inflation remains reasonably well contained. But this is unlikely to stop the ECB from increasing interest rates again next week. 29th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank roll-over plan a small step forward for Greece The French plan for banks to roll over a significant chunk of their maturing Greek government debt could significantly reduce Greece’s near-term funding pressures. But we doubt that the roll-over plan... 29th June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Can China solve the euro-zone’s problems? Despite warm words of support from China’s leaders, there is no reason to believe that China has the ability to solve the euro-zone’s debt crisis. We estimate that China has already bought more than... 28th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greece edging closer to a second bail-out Developments last week suggest that the Greek Government will receive the fifth tranche of its initial bail-out package by early July. What’s more, although the finer details on the form of any... 28th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jun.) June’s rise in the Ifo index defies other recent evidence that Germany’s impressive recovery is slowing. Nonetheless, we still think that GDP growth will slow quite sharply over the remainder of the... 25th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Too soon to turn positive on Irish commercial property Q1’s sharp rise in Irish GDP is not as encouraging as it first seems. Although the external sector appears to be booming, we do not expect this to last. More worryingly, domestic demand continued to... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) The sharp fall in the flash euro-zone PMI in June provides further signs that the underlying pace of GDP growth is slowing, making it increasingly likely that a bout of strong growth will not solve... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE investment volumes still on upward trend, but remain subdued The trend for investment volumes among CEE property markets still appears to be upward. However, activity remains well below peak levels and restricted only to a handful of markets, namely Poland... 23rd June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Jun.) June’s sharper than expected fall in the headline German ZEW index brought further signs that the German economic recovery has passed its peak. 22nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Ireland and Portugal roll over their debt too? The Irish and Portuguese public finances are not in as precarious a position as those of Greece, but we think that there is a strong chance that both economies will eventually have to follow in Greece... 22nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greece teetering on the edge The growing political uncertainty within Greece and fears that European policymakers will not step in and take decisive action to resolve the crisis has pushed the Greek Government closer to the brink... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have the downside risks to the French retail market increased? Signs that French consumer spending has fallen sharply over the past couple of months might make our forecast for retail rental values to track sideways this year look too optimistic. Yet, in the... 18th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade Balance (Apr.) April’s euro-zone trade data do nothing to alter our view that the external recovery in the region has passed its peak. With domestic demand set to remain weak, we expect GDP growth to slow sharply in... 18th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece on the brink Crunch time appears to be rapidly approaching for Greece. While an additional bail-out package may stave off near-term disaster, a major debt restructuring seems inevitable at some point and Greece’s... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final, May) & Employment (Q1) May’s small fall in euro-zone CPI inflation is unlikely to prevent the ECB from hiking interest rates again in July. But with Q1’s weak employment figures supporting our view that domestic demand will... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
