Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q1 11) Q1’s GDP figures confirmed that Sweden’s impressive recovery continued at the start of this year and will ensure that the Riksbank will continue to raise interest rates at a faster pace than other... 27th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would banks cope with a Greek debt "reprofiling"? Some form of Greek debt rescheduling would certainly have rather less severe implications for the euro-zone’s banks than a “hard” default. Nonetheless, were the process badly handled, it could still... 26th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the domino effect hit Belgium? With fears that Spain’s “decoupling” from Greece, Ireland and Portugal may prove temporary, markets may become less sanguine about Belgium than they have recently been. With the political situation... 24th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Final GDP (Q1) & Ifo Survey (May) May’s Ifo survey suggests that Germany’s impressive economic recovery continued in Q2. But with other surveys weakening recently and the GDP breakdown suggesting that Q1’s sharp rise in activity was... 24th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) May’s sharp fall in the flash euro-zone Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), driven by developments in France and Germany, brought the strongest signs yet that the core economies’ recoveries are losing... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly No "soft" options for Greece There are growing signs that the EU will allow Greece to undertake a “soft” debt restructuring, probably involving the voluntary exchange of debt for bonds of longer maturities. This could ease the... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Ireland also need a second bail-out? Ireland appears to be under no imminent pressure to follow Greece and seek a bigger bail-out package. Nonetheless, we still think that it may eventually need to gain additional financial support from... 19th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain: are cracks starting to show? For now, markets continue to give Spain the benefit of the doubt. But with signs that its modest economic recovery will soon lose momentum and increasing concerns that the regional governments will... 18th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Portugal push away debt restructuring fears? Portugal’s bail-out has finally been given the green light. While a cash crisis has been avoided, there are reasons to think that Portugal may struggle to push away fears that it will eventually need... 17th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Weak performance outside the core The increasing divergence between the euro-zone’s core and peripheral economies are now clearly evident in the performance of commercial property markets. In contrast to the core, there is no... 17th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (May) May’s fall in the headline ZEW index adds to evidence that the German economic recovery may be starting to slow. 17th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Greek default - causes and effects The markets are right to think that a likely second bail-out for Greece over the coming months will not preclude some form of debt restructuring or default. But we suspect that they are too sanguine... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final, Apr.) & Trade (Mar.) April’s sharp rise in core inflation is probably not as worrying as it may seem, but it will do nothing to ease the ECB’s inflation concerns, suggesting that the Bank may raise interest rates again in... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong surface hides widening cracks The solid 0.8% gain in euro-zone GDP in Q1 has left our previous forecast of 1.0% growth in 2011 overall looking too downbeat. We have pushed it up to 1.5%, but an even stronger figure of 2.0% or so... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Cracks between euro-zone core and peripheral markets widen Today’s euro-zone GDP data will do nothing to boost investor sentiment towards commercial property in the region’s troubled peripheral economies. Rather it supports forecasts that the gap between... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) Q1’s 0.8% gain in euro-zone GDP has got the year off to a solid start and we have revised our full-year growth forecast up from 1.0% to 1.5%. But with the divergences in the region still widening... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
