Europe Commercial Property Update Is a period of underperformance looming for Munich offices? Prime office capital values in Munich in 2011 outperformed the other main German cities, thanks mainly to a sharp rise in office rents. But while this rise might have raised the scope for office rents... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s rise in German industrial production reduced the immediate risk of a recession, but did little to change the underlying picture of a very sharp slowdown in the sector. 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Sustained fall in inflation underway Inflation will climb further in most major economies over the coming months, reflecting both higher energy prices and higher food prices. The peaks should still be lower than those in 2008 as long as... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumer outlook darkens The prospect of stronger growth in the euro-zone economy has been dented by a slew of bad news on the consumer sector. Not only did household spending contract by 0.4% in the last quarter of 2011 -... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will strong investment demand in Spain be sustained? One interpretation of the sharp jump in investment activity in Spain at the end of last year is that overseas investors stepped up their interest in distressed property in anticipation that values may... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q4) The second euro-zone GDP release for Q4 revealed that the 0.3% decline was due to falls in household spending, investment and exports. While GDP might stabilise in Q1, we suspect that this broad-based... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Greek debt deal go through? A high participation rate in the Greek debt exchange would reduce the chances of an imminent disorderly default. But even if all bondholders take part, Greece’s public debt burden will remain... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Credit crunch risks have not evaporated Having agreed to forego profits on its Greek government bonds and pumped billions more into the banking system over the past month, the ECB is unlikely to announce any major policy changes at its... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Feb./Jan.) The latest euro-zone data revealed an unpalatable combination of stubborn inflation and rising unemployment at the start of the year, suggesting that the recent improvement in sentiment towards the... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q4 11) Q4’s Swedish GDP figures brought the strongest evidence yet that the problems in the euro-zone are taking their toll on Europe’s healthiest economies. We continue to think that the Riksbank will lower... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swedish industrial rental outperformance on shaky ground This morning’s news that Swedish GDP contracted by 1.1%q/q in Q4 last year suggests that our forecast for Stockholm industrial rents to fall by 1% this year may now prove to be too optimistic. Whether... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Monetary stimulus not enough to rescue commodity prices The additional monetary stimulus from the world’s major central banks undoubtedly contributed to the recovery in asset prices, including commodities as well as equities, after the global recession... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update ECB reduces risk of UK credit crunch, for now The ECB’s second long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) conducted this morning should alleviate the risk of a renewed credit crunch, not just in the euro-zone, but in the UK too. However, UK bank... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update LTROs won't solve the euro-zone crisis The ECB’s second three-year loan operation will provide further vital support for the euro-zone’s beleaguered banking sector. But hopes that the funds will also solve the fiscal crisis and breathe... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish GDP (Q4) Q4’s Swedish GDP figures brought the strongest evidence yet that the problems in the euro-zone are taking their toll on Europe’s healthiest economies. We continue to think that the Riksbank will lower... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) For now at least, Portugal, Italy and Ireland all appear to be meeting their budget deficit targets. But the Spanish deficit narrowed by much less than expected in 2011 and further slippage appears... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
