Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish rate cut unlikely to be the last The Swedish Riksbank indicated that it expects its latest 25 basis point interest rate cut to be the last in the cycle. But we expect the adverse knock-on effects from an intensification of the euro... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could a Greek default be another Lehman's moment? The global fall-out from a long-anticipated Greek government default alone should be small and manageable, even if it takes the form of a “disorderly” default without the agreement of private... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Walking away from Greece would be a big gamble The direct economic and financial ramifications of a disorderly Greek default may not be very much worse than those of the planned “voluntary” debt restructuring. But the broader implications for the... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Yield recovery on the brink of going into reverse The final quarter of 2011 brought the strongest evidence yet that the downward phase in euro-zone commercial property yields has not only come to an end, but has started to go into reverse. Falling... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish rate cut unlikely to be the last The Swedish Riksbank indicated that it expects its latest 25 basis point interest rate cut to be the last in the cycle. But we expect the adverse knock-on effects from an intensification of the euro... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a second Portuguese bail-out involve PSI? Portugal has made some progress in reining in its huge budget deficit, but it appears inevitable that it will need another rescue package. While there is a good chance that any new deal will not be... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) The provisional Q4 euro-zone GDP figures confirmed that the economy contracted at the end of last year, albeit by a bit less than had been feared. The 0.3% quarterly fall was slightly better than the... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Money and credit still very weak While some of the euro-zone activity indicators have nudged up this month, money and credit growth have weakened further. The annual growth rate of the broad money supply fell to an 11-month low of 1... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.), & German ZEW (Feb.) 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greece on the brink, yet again The immense difficulties in finalising a second rescue package and debt restructuring for Greece have pushed the country right to the brink once more. Even if the policymakers manage again to step... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Dutch commercial property heading for a crash? We think that Dutch commercial property values will fall this year and next as the economy slides back into recession. But one view, emanating from the Netherlands Central Bank (DNB) last week, is... 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB focuses on credit crunch dangers The ECB today approved further measures to address the danger of a credit crunch in the euro-zone. However, it continues to resist taking more direct action to tackle the region’s fiscal crisis. 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus How would the US cope with a euro break-up? The US is not that exposed to the crisis in Europe. Despite the prospect of a very deep euro-zone recession arising from some form of euro break-up, we estimate that US GDP growth will be just 0.5... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austerity deal won’t mark a turning point for Greece Greek policymakers may soon agree on a new austerity and structural reform programme, reducing the chances of a disorderly default in March. Nonetheless, any deal is unlikely to prevent Greece’s... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s drop in German industrial production was a serious blow to hopes that the economy might be recovering. The 2.9% monthly fall was far weaker than the consensus forecast of no change and came... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crunch year for the euro-zone? While the news on the euro-zone economy has improved a bit in the last month or two, 2012 could still turn out to be crunch year for the currency union. Fiscal progress in the peripheral economies has... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
