Europe Commercial Property Update Have Portuguese property yields already risen enough? In our view, over 2012-13, Portugal will endure the second deepest recession in the euro-zone. Even so, the gap between the Portuguese property/bond yield spread and its long-term average is by no... 16th March 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB’s support won’t rescue the Swiss economy The Swiss National Bank pledged to maintain its extremely supportive policy stance today, keeping interest rates as close to zero as possible and defending a minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro... 15th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB’s support won’t rescue the Swiss economy The Swiss National Bank pledged to maintain its extremely supportive policy stance today, keeping interest rates as close to zero as possible and defending a minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro... 15th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US economy to pull further ahead of euro-zone The divergence between the performances of the US and the euro-zone economies looks set to widen even further than we had previously expected this year and next. 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jan.) & HICP (Feb.) January’s small rise in euro-zone industrial production does little to alter the picture of a sharp slowdown in the sector. 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for bond and stock markets We have revised our projections for the major Western government bond and stock markets, and for emerging markets, partly to reflect changes to our US economic forecasts and partly due to reduced... 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update TARGET2 imbalances highlight euro-zone problems The growing imbalances in the euro-zone’s TARGET2 payments system are another indication of the huge underlying problems still facing the currency union. 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Mar.) March’s rise in ZEW investor sentiment will add to hopes that the German economy is holding up surprisingly well as other parts of the euro-zone slide back into recession. 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy remains in troubled waters The markets may currently be giving Italy the benefit of the doubt, but recent data have supported our gloomy view of the economic outlook. We think it may only be a matter of time before Italy is... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek deal does not eliminate break-up risks On the face of it, recent developments like the Greek debt restructuring deal and the ECB’s liquidity operations appear to have strongly undermined our view that a limited form of euro-zone break-up... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Debt deal not the end of Greece’s problems The successful Greek debt exchange should ensure that the second bail-out package is formally signed off before long, but it leaves Greek government debt still at an unsustainably high level. 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB puts the ball in governments’ court The ECB struck a downbeat tone at its policy meeting today. But having recently provided massive long-term loans to the banking sector, it is not prepared to offer more support before it has taken... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is a period of underperformance looming for Munich offices? Prime office capital values in Munich in 2011 outperformed the other main German cities, thanks mainly to a sharp rise in office rents. But while this rise might have raised the scope for office rents... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s rise in German industrial production reduced the immediate risk of a recession, but did little to change the underlying picture of a very sharp slowdown in the sector. 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Sustained fall in inflation underway Inflation will climb further in most major economies over the coming months, reflecting both higher energy prices and higher food prices. The peaks should still be lower than those in 2008 as long as... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumer outlook darkens The prospect of stronger growth in the euro-zone economy has been dented by a slew of bad news on the consumer sector. Not only did household spending contract by 0.4% in the last quarter of 2011 -... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
