Europe Economics Update Fears about German wage growth are overdone The recent rise in German wage growth and signs of a further increase to come have prompted fears of a pick-up in inflation and loss of competitiveness. We think that these worries are overdone... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) The fall in the composite euro-zone PMI in February puts a dent in hopes that the region will emerge from recession in the first quarter. 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The EC consumer confidence survey rose for the third consecutive month in February in line with the general pick up in sentiment across the euro-zone. But the survey remains consistent with further... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Italy: After the election Even if the Italian general election results in the formation of a stable pro-reform Government, Italy’s huge underlying economic problems suggest that it may only be a matter of time before concerns... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Negative rates: lessons from Denmark The Danish central bank’s use of negative interest rates provides an insight into one of the few untried tools still available to major central banks. Denmark’s experience suggests that negative rates... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Feb.) February’s rise in German ZEW investor sentiment added to the positive signs for the economy. But we still think it is too soon to bank on a strong and sustained recovery. 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Negative rates: lessons from Denmark The Danish central bank’s use of negative interest rates provides an insight into one of the few untried tools still available to major central banks. Denmark’s experience suggests that negative rates... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Have the peripheral economies regained competitiveness? Official figures appear to suggest that the peripheral countries are successfully restoring competitiveness through internal devaluation. Since peaking in 2008/09, whole economy unit labour costs... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German exports to outperform despite stronger euro The recent rise in the euro exchange rate is likely to hit Germany and Finland hardest given their strong trade links with non-euro-zone countries. But with exports from the south and periphery set to... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should office and retail yields in Oslo be lower? The outperformance of the Norwegian economy is evident in above-average growth in office and retail rental values, but not in initial yields. However, rather than being a sign that property in Oslo is... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP slump underlines currency threat While the export-driven slump in euro-zone GDP in Q4 did not itself reflect the strength of the euro exchange rate, it further underlined the economy’s vulnerability to the currency’s recent... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the ECB follow words with actions? Mario Draghi’s hints that the ECB might respond to the threat posed by the strength of the euro begs the question of just what action it could take. While there are plenty of policy options still... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) Q4’s bigger than expected fall in euro-zone GDP underlined the fact that, while sentiment towards the region has improved, the hard news on the economy remains distinctly weak. 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook 2013: a softer year ahead for property Our forecasts envisage that European commercial property markets outside of the single currency region will benefit from the recent lull in the euro-crisis. Although the fundamental economic drivers... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Weak occupier fundamentals to drag down property The current lull in the debt crisis has come too late to prevent a marked deterioration in economic and occupier market conditions in most euro-zone property markets. And the slowdown in economic... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s rise in euro-zone industrial production does not alter the fact that GDP probably contracted pretty sharply in Q4. 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
