Europe Economics Update Swedish rate cut unlikely to be the last The Swedish Riksbank indicated that it expects its latest 25 basis point interest rate cut to be the last in the cycle. But we expect the adverse knock-on effects from an intensification of the euro... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a second Portuguese bail-out involve PSI? Portugal has made some progress in reining in its huge budget deficit, but it appears inevitable that it will need another rescue package. While there is a good chance that any new deal will not be... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) The provisional Q4 euro-zone GDP figures confirmed that the economy contracted at the end of last year, albeit by a bit less than had been feared. The 0.3% quarterly fall was slightly better than the... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Money and credit still very weak While some of the euro-zone activity indicators have nudged up this month, money and credit growth have weakened further. The annual growth rate of the broad money supply fell to an 11-month low of 1... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.), & German ZEW (Feb.) 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greece on the brink, yet again The immense difficulties in finalising a second rescue package and debt restructuring for Greece have pushed the country right to the brink once more. Even if the policymakers manage again to step... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Dutch commercial property heading for a crash? We think that Dutch commercial property values will fall this year and next as the economy slides back into recession. But one view, emanating from the Netherlands Central Bank (DNB) last week, is... 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB focuses on credit crunch dangers The ECB today approved further measures to address the danger of a credit crunch in the euro-zone. However, it continues to resist taking more direct action to tackle the region’s fiscal crisis. 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus How would the US cope with a euro break-up? The US is not that exposed to the crisis in Europe. Despite the prospect of a very deep euro-zone recession arising from some form of euro break-up, we estimate that US GDP growth will be just 0.5... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austerity deal won’t mark a turning point for Greece Greek policymakers may soon agree on a new austerity and structural reform programme, reducing the chances of a disorderly default in March. Nonetheless, any deal is unlikely to prevent Greece’s... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s drop in German industrial production was a serious blow to hopes that the economy might be recovering. The 2.9% monthly fall was far weaker than the consensus forecast of no change and came... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crunch year for the euro-zone? While the news on the euro-zone economy has improved a bit in the last month or two, 2012 could still turn out to be crunch year for the currency union. Fiscal progress in the peripheral economies has... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update French rental value prospects are bad, but not "Portuguese" bad Recent survey evidence suggests that the rental outlook in France is about as bad as it is in Portugal. We agree that the prospects for French rental values are pretty weak. However, the sheer scale... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Compact agreed, but economies diverge While European leaders have now agreed to the fiscal compact proposed last year, its terms have been diluted significantly. Meanwhile, their economies have continued to diverge. Most worryingly, while... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update China will not bail out euro-zone alone Yesterday’s remarks by Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao, have yet again raised the possibility that China may put its financial weight behind international efforts to shore up the euro. We remain sceptical... 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Will the ECB take a haircut? While the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to keep interest rates unchanged again at its February policy meeting, President Draghi will no doubt use the following press conference to stress the... 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
