Europe Economics Update Debt buyback won't transform Greece's fiscal outlook While early signs indicate that Greece’s debt buyback will be a success, it will not bring an end to the country’s fiscal crisis. 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Is it too soon to look beyond core European property markets? Above-average falls in rental values and a rising yield gap with core markets both suggest that there is growing scope for commercial property in the peripheral euro-zone economies to outperform... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Negative bank rates won’t depress the Swiss franc for long Credit Suisse’s announcement that it will charge other banks for holding large Swiss franc deposits with it has helped to ease the pressure on the currency for now. But while we have revised down our... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How would exiting countries fare outside the euro-zone? Contrary to some suggestions, there are good reasons to think that, beyond the initial economic andfinancial disruption caused by an exit from the euro-zone, most of the current peripheral... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek bail-out deal won't bring lasting calm Last week’s bail-out agreement has prompted some commentators to suggest that Greece’s future in the euro-zone should now be secure until at least next autumn. But we are not convinced. Indeed, given... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the Oslo-Stockholm all-property yield differential widen? If the euro-zone crisis worsens and economic growth in Norway and Sweden disappoints, property yields in both Oslo and Stockholm are likely to rise by 30bps to 50bps over the next 12-18 months... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Oct.) & Flash CPI (Nov.) The latest news on the euro-zone labour market and inflation further underlined the general weakness of the region’s economy. 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Still standing ready Having boldly pledged to do whatever it takes to save the euro back in the summer, ECB President Mario Draghi has struck a noticeably more cautious tone over recent months. We expect more of the same... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How the core should respond to a euro break-up Sharp appreciations in the euro-zone’s core countries would threaten to damage their exports and GDP in the event of a euro-zone break-up. But there are various policies that could be implemented to... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) Although Greece, Portugal and Ireland are making some fiscal progress, Italy and Spain are still struggling to cut their budget deficits 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Nov.) November’s EC consumer and business survey does not alter our view that the consensus forecast for the euro-zone economy broadly to stagnate in 2013 is far too optimistic. A deep recession still looks... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss & Swedish GDP (Q3) Swiss and Swedish GDP figures for Q3 showed that the two economies remained resilient despite the euro-zone’s troubles. But while both may avoid deep recessions next year, we expect growth to be much... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss & Swedish GDP (Q3 12) Swiss and Swedish GDP figures for Q3 showed that the two economies remained resilient despite the euro-zone’s troubles. But while both may avoid deep recessions next year, we expect growth to be much... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct. 12) The latest euro-zone monetary data revealed a further small acceleration in the growth of money and bank lending in the region. But weak credit growth remains a major constraint on economic activity... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will core market property yields be immune to the downturn? Outside the peripheral markets, the economic downturn in the euro-zone has yet to have a material impact on commercial property values. Yet if the recession deepens as we anticipate, the next six... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal delays the day of reckoning Euro-zone policymakers have found a bit more money down the back of the sofa to buy another sticking plaster for Greece. But the relatively easy options are running out fast. 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
