Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s sharp rise in German industrial production reduces the risk that the economy is already in recession. But the underlying picture is still one of a sharp slowdown in the sector which will leave... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Austerity is the best policy Despite weaker survey data, the ECB is in no hurry to sanction further measures to boost euro-zone growth. It feels the existing accommodative policy stance is providing the region with the basic... 7th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth steady, US-Europe divergence persists Business surveys for April suggest the global economy began the second quarter at a steady but subdued growth rate of around 3%. They also suggest the divergence between moderate growth in the US and... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB: 'Austerity' wins the day The ECB held its main refinancing rate at 1% today but perhaps more interestingly, appears to have favoured the path of ‘austerity’ in the euro-zone region. Developments on inflation were deemed to be... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank bond purchases could deepen the crisis Banks’ purchases of sovereign debt have helped to lower some euro-zone governments’ borrowing costs. But they cannot solve the broader debt crisis and may even deepen it by further increasing the... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Property returns to be dented by the euro-zone crisis Non-euro-zone European economies will not be immune to a fresh recession in the euro-zone. We expect all economies in the region to undergo a sharp slowdown in growth or worse. Barring perhaps Poland... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Recession to act as a drag on occupier markets and rents Over the past few months we have seen little reason to alter in either direction our euro-zone commercial property forecasts. With no resolution in sight to the region’s debt crisis, we think that all... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Weakening outlook fuels growth calls The growing calls for euro-zone policymakers to shift their emphasis from austerity to growth have been fuelled by the continued deterioration in the outlook for the economy. Key forward-looking... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemp. & Final Man. PMI (Mar./Apr.) The latest data on the state of the euro-zone labour market and manufacturing sector underline the enormity of the challenge facing policymakers to respond the growing calls for growth across the... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) Peripheral euro-zone economies continue to struggle to make further inroads into their budget deficits. Although this partly reflects temporary factors, the deteriorating growth outlook suggests that... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain: Banking on a bail-out? A fragile banking sector is one factor threatening to put further upward pressure on Spanish government bond yields. And with the economy back in recession and labour market conditions continuing to... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Hollande really transform France’s outlook? François Hollande’s promises of a pro-growth strategy and a stronger leadership role in Europe have raised hopes about France’s economic outlook. But his bold words have so far been backed by few firm... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek election won’t buy much time Greece’s general election should result in the formation of a new Government that is, on paper at least, committed to the terms of the recently agreed second bail-out deal. But with the economy still... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The latest monetary data revealed a further pick-up in broad money supply growth following generous ECB lending. But while banks seem to be using some of the money to buy government bonds, they are... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) & Spanish GDP (Q1) April’s euro-zone CPI inflation data confirmed that inflation remains stubbornly high. Over the coming months, we expect inflation to fall, but only gradually, ensuring that the squeeze on households’... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Growth to disappoint as the euro-zone crisis drags on The euro-zone economy is heading back into recession. And if we are right that the euro-zone is not sustainable in its current form, the downturn will extend into 2013 and eventually encompass all... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
