Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemp. & Final Man. PMI (Apr./May) The latest data on the state of the euro-zone labour market and manufacturing sector confirm that the economic downturn is broadening and gathering pace. This clearly further reduces policymakers’... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Will the ECB provide more support? The further escalation of the euro-zone crisis has intensified the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to take further remedial action. But while President Draghi may hold open the prospect of... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Another shot at TARGET2 While some of the concerns over TARGET2 imbalances might be over-done, they are nonetheless a reminder of the depth of the economic and financial problems facing the currency union. 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (May) May’s fall in euro-zone CPI inflation and the drop in the German unemployment rate were rare pieces of good news for the beleaguered euro-zone. But the recent sharp falls in measures of business... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q1 12) The Swedish GDP figures for Q1 suggest that the economy is withstanding the eurozone fiscal crisis pretty well. But we still think that Sweden is set for a bumpy ride andthat the Riksbank will reduce... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can a bail-out solve Spain’s problems? A worsening domestic economy and limited scope for the state bank reconstruction fund (FROB) to defuse Spain’s banking crisis, make an EU/IMF bail-out package look unavoidable. But in our view, it is... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The latest monetary data confirm that the ECB’s generous liquidity measures are not prompting banks to lend more to the rest of the economy. 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update A brighter outlook for Oslo office rents? Reports that office rents in Oslo continued to rise in Q1 seem consistent with the economy’s stronger-than-expected start to the year. And they almost certainly suggest that our forecast of stagnant... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (May) May’s EC business and consumer survey underlined the enormity of the task facing euro-zone policymakers if they are going to convert the growing “consensus” on the need for stronger growth across the... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish GDP (Q1) The Swedish GDP figures for Q1 suggest that the economy is withstanding the euro-zone fiscal crisis pretty well. But we still think that Sweden is set for a bumpy ride and that the Riksbank will... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) Recent fiscal data suggest that Greece and Spain will struggle to meet their existing budget deficit forecasts for 2012 without implementing further austerity measures. But for now at least, the... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are historical monetary break-ups relevant to the euro-zone? The break-up of the euro-zone would be an unprecedented event because the euro itself is unique. But there are still some useful lessons to be learnt from previous monetary splits. 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Problems mount for the next Greek Government Markets have reacted positively to some signs of growing support for the pro-bail-out parties amongst Greek voters. But the formation of a government headed by New Democracy is unlikely to end deposit... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth plans look futile as German activity falls European policymakers focused again last week on the need for growth in the region, with Wednesday’s informal EU summit ending in pledges to speed up structural reforms, strengthen job creation and... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The euro has yet to price in a break-up Even after the recent falls, the euro exchange rate does not appear to incorporate a significant “break-up premium”. As such, we see scope for further considerable declines as the crisis continues. 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Greece survive outside the euro-zone? Many commentators argue that even though Greece might benefit from leaving the euro-zone in the long run, an immediate exit would result in the Government running out of money with potentially... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
