Europe Data Response Italian GDP (Q2) & French Industrial Production (Jul.) Although Q2’s final Italian GDP figures painted a reasonably encouraging picture, timelier hard data, such as the French industrial production numbers for July, suggest that the euro-zone economy... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would a left-wing coalition mean for Germany? The possible coalition of Germany’s SPD, Green and Left parties after next week’s election would probably mean slightly higher taxes and spending than under the more likely alternatives of a grand... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Greece reached a turning point? The quarterly rise in Greek GDP in Q2 raises hopes that the economy has reached a turning point. But we doubt that Greece is now on the path to recovery and still think that further financial... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What effect will Germany's election have on euro-zone bonds? Germany will probably continue to provide temporary support for troubled euro-zone countries but retain an emphasis on austerity after its election later this month. This should minimise the demand... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is Spain staging an export-led recovery? Last week’s data from Spain were pretty encouraging – in particular, the PMI export orders index for August suggested that Spain’s robust export recovery continued in Q3. But other data indicate that... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Ind. Prod./ German & French Trade (Jul.) Data for July revealing falls in German and Spanish industrial production and a deterioration of Germany and France’s trade balances support our view that the eurozone’s economic recovery will be very... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What can we glean from regional unemployment data in the euro-zone? Unlike in Germany, regional labour market data from elsewhere in the euro-zone do not give much of a steer on the likely near-term paths of local office market vacancy rates. However, they do suggest... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Iceland GDP (Q2) Icelandic GDP fell sharply in Q2. But behind the headline figure, the data confirmed that the economy is still on the road to recovery, albeit a long and tortuous one. 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Iceland GDP (Q2 13) Icelandic GDP fell sharply in Q2. But behind the headline figure, the data confirmed that the economy is still on the road to recovery, albeit a long and tortuous one. 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB strikes balance between optimism and support President Draghi walked a tightrope today in acknowledging the nascent recovery while at the same time trying not to raise markets’ interest rate expectations. We think that he will fulfil his pledge... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic-Sep The Swedish Riksbank continued to suggest that interest rate hikes are unlikely until the end of 2014. But we expect the economic recovery to be weaker than the Bank expects, implying that rates could... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic The Swedish Riksbank continued to suggest that interest rate hikes are unlikely until the end of 2014. But we expect the economic recovery to be weaker than the Bank expects, implying that rates could... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Less could be more when it comes to forward guidance The ECB’s apparent success in verbally influencing the financial markets might reflect the vagueness of the central bank’s communications. But policy actions will always mean more than words. 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone retail occupier markets strengthening, but values still at risk The main issue with UK regional indicators published in August was the poor economic performance that the Labour Force Survey ascribed to several regions, including London. Our view is that the LFS... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumers leading moderate recovery The euro-zone exited its record-long recession in Q2 and recent business surveys suggest that the economy should expand again in the third quarter. An increase in household spending, the first in... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2), Final PMI (Aug.) & Retail Sales (Jul.) The breakdown of Q2 GDP and more timely news on retail sales and the final PMI brought further confirmation that the euro-zone economy has embarked on a recovery. But growth rates look set to remain... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
