Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jun) June’s EC survey mirrors the picture from other timely indicators lately that the euro-zone is in a deepening and broadening recession. This further underlines the need for policymakers to come up... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Lower oil price will not boost euro-zone growth The recent sharp fall in the oil price has prompted us to revise down our euro-zone CPI inflation forecast for this year and next. But this will not prevent the region from falling into a deep... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What would euro break-up mean for Emerging Europe? The economic and financial effects of a limited break-up of the euro-zone could knock some 2-3% off the level of Emerging Europe’s GDP by the end of 2013. But a bigger, more disorderly, break-up would... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Emerging European dollar bonds likely to lose their shine Despite the escalation of the crisis in the euro-zone, which has taken a heavy toll on bonds issued by troubled governments within the region, the dollar-denominated sovereign debt of emerging market... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jun.) The latest fiscal data provide further support to the view that recessions in the southern euro-zone economies are causing the governments there to fall behind their fiscal targets. 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain: A €100bn bail-out ‘ceiling’ is not high enough The €100bn bail-out ‘ceiling’ for Spanish banks may provide a smaller ‘safety margin’ than the recent independent audits suggested and won’t address the country’s broader economic and fiscal problems... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update French REIT valuations reflect downside property risks The current low share prices of French REITs relative to NAVs might suggest that there is value in the sector. But given that French property yields are low, and that the economy is likely to contract... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Basic divisions will hinder Summit progress Together, the radical plans that are up for discussion at this week’s Summit could be the key to the euro-zone’s survival. But with Germany opposed to providing more funds without central budget... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bail-out talks are the next key hurdle for Greece The formation of a coalition Government headed by New Democracy has reduced the chances of Greece exiting the euro-zone imminently. But the political situation remains precarious and the Government’s... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jun.) June’s German Ifo survey reinforced the message already given by the ZEW and PMI surveys earlier this week that the euro-zone’s main growth engine has stalled. 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Italy need a bail-out too? Italy may have recently avoided the spotlight thanks to developments in Greece and Spain, but its dreadful debt dynamics mean that it remains a ticking time-bomb for the euro-zone. 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too downbeat on Norwegian retail rental values? The strong performance of Norway’s economy in Q1 raises the question whether our retail rental value forecasts may be a touch gloomy. However, given that international retailers are looking to scale... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Latest bazooka may lack ammunition Plans for the euro-zone bail-out fund to purchase sovereign debt look unlikely to have a lasting effect on governments’ borrowing costs unless accompanied by a significant increase in firepower. 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What is the optimum re-configuration of the euro-zone? The economically optimal re-configuration of the euro-zone would involve the survival of a core Northern euro incorporating Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Finland, and Belgium. France’s position... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain moving quickly towards a sovereign bail-out The recent further rise in Spanish government bond yields underlines the fact that the banking bailout will not address the country’s broader fiscal problems. A sovereign bail-out is all but... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jun.) June’s plunge in the headline German ZEW index provides further support for the view that the intensifying debt crisis is starting to hit Germany pretty hard. 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
