Europe Economics Focus Would deflation lead the periphery into a debt trap? If the peripheral euro-zone economies regained competitiveness via outright deflation, their public and private sector debt levels would spiral higher as a share of GDP, prompting disaster. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy: New government, same challenges The formation of a grand coalition government in Italy is clearly a step forward, but we doubt that this marks a period of lasting political stability. In addition, despite calls from Prime Minister... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Apr.) April’s EC consumer and business survey supports other evidence that the euro-zone economy could contract again in Q2, marking the region’s longest ever recession. 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will less austerity rescue the euro-zone? Hopes that euro-zone policymakers are set to sanction a reduction in the pace of fiscal tightening across the region rose further last week after EC President Jose Manuel Barroso suggested that the... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deleveraging in Denmark: what lessons for other Nordics? Household spending in Denmark has barely recovered since its housing bubble burst in 2007 and there appears little respite ahead for households. With rising debt now fuelling housing booms in Sweden... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Balance marginally in favour of rate cut Having stated following its last meeting that it stood ready to act, it would be a big disappointment if the ECB did nothing at the forthcoming meeting on May 2nd. On balance, we think that an... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have office property values reached a floor in Athens and Dublin? Ireland’s economy is still fragile, but occupier demand is unlikely to drop further. Thus reports of rising office values in Dublin in the first quarter may well prove a turning point. But Greek GDP... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Deleveraging in Denmark: what lessons for other Nordics? Household spending in Denmark has barely recovered since its housing bubble burst in 2007 and there appears little respite ahead for households. With rising debt now fuelling housing booms in Sweden... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) April’s fall in the German Ifo business climate indicator will add to concerns that the recovery there is starting to falter. 24th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) April’s euro-zone PMI survey provided another clear sign that a sustained economic recovery in the region is still some way off. 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s problems are far from over The re-election of President Napolitano suggests that Italy could soon have a new government in place. But an end to the political deadlock will not resolve Italy’s deep economic problems. 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fiscal figures cast further doubt on austerity policies The news that the euro-zone budget deficit shrank again last year will be hailed as evidence by some that austerity is working. But the fact that most economies’ deficits have fallen by less than... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus GOEF crisis enters new phase Looming deadlines for stricken German open-ended funds to complete their liquidation processes – or hand over remaining assets to their respective custodian banks – mean that the supply of property... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Record trade surplus not a sign of strength February’s record-breaking euro-zone trade surplus of €12bn suggests that the external sector provided the wider economy with a boost in Q1. But we doubt that the sector is about to kick start an... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update First signs that Amsterdam retail rents will not defy gravity forever The run of dismal consumer sector data from the Netherlands helps to explain why the level of retail yields in Amsterdam is high relative to other major euro-zone retail markets. Indeed, this could be... 19th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Belgium: not necessarily the core's weakest link? We have previously warned that Belgium shares several characteristics with peripheral economies, such as high public debt, banking problems and falling competitiveness. But the economy also enjoys... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
