Europe Economics Update Is Spain really on the path to recovery? Q3’s GDP estimate from the Bank of Spain suggests that the economy has finally emerged from its two year long recession. But we doubt that the economy will generate a strong enough recovery to bring... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone enjoy a "creditless recovery"? The recent pick-up in the euro-zone economy stands in marked contrast to the accelerating contraction in bank credit. Given the importance of banks to the region, a “creditless recovery” will not be... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Italian government bond spreads continue to fall? Given the recent run of positive economic news from the euro-zone, it is perhaps no surprise that the spread between Italian and German government bond yields has narrowed. But we remain concerned... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro strength threatens recovery prospects Euro-zone policymakers took another step along the path towards banking union last week, while the resolution of the US shutdown debacle appeared to remove an external threat to the region’s fragile... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German office occupier demand set to strengthen Third-quarter agency data show that, overall, office occupier market activity in Germany's major markets has continued to trend lower. But take-up levels remain relatively high, while the positive... 18th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Calm returns, for now The past month has brought signs of stabilisation across the emerging world. EM financial markets largely shrugged off concerns over a possible US default and regained some of their lost ground... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Long German coalition talks won't cause much change While the struggle to form a new German Government looks set to continue for another month, this does not mean that major change is afoot. Angela Merkel might make some concessions on a national... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Assessing two key risks to the Swiss economy We think that the continued strength of the franc will weigh heavily on Switzerland’s exports for some time yet. But fears of overheating in the property market seem overdone, implying that a brighter... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will happen after next year's bank stress tests? Euro-zone Finance Ministers made little progress on Banking Union at their summit this week. If next year’s stress tests find large holes in bank balance sheets, there is still no clear mechanism to... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Assessing two key risks to the Swiss economy We think that the continued strength of the franc will weigh heavily on Switzerland’s exports for some time yet. But fears of overheating in the property market seem overdone, implying that a brighter... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Budget keeps Ireland on track for bail-out exit Ireland’s 2014 Budget presented an apparently conducive backdrop for the country’s exit from its euro-zone support programme later this year. But Ireland’s post bail-out prosperity is not yet assured... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Portugal's commercial property market is still a risky bet There have been encouraging signs lately that international institutional investors might be returning to the Portuguese commercial property market. This would be consistent with the improvement in... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Does Europe still face default? Despite the euro-zone economy’s recent recovery, likely constraints on future rates of economic growth and limits to further austerity mean that more of the region’s economies could yet choose, or be... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Oct.) The continued rise in ZEW investor sentiment in October suggests that the German economy is so far weathering the storm of political turmoil elsewhere. 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug 13.) Despite a rise in production in August, the euro-zone industrial sector is unlikely to have provided much of a boost to the wider economy in Q3. 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly US shutdown underlines uncertain global backdrop The US federal government shutdown is unlikely to have major direct effects on the European economy and financial markets provided that it is resolved fairly quickly. Nonetheless, the episode has... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
