Europe Economics Update Will the weaker euro rescue Ireland? Ireland’s extraordinarily open economy and strong trade links outside the euro-zone mean that it stands to gain more than other peripheral economies from the depreciation of the euro. But the currency... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jul.) July’s fall in the ZEW investor expectations index is another sign that Germany’s earlier economic resilience is over. The weakness of sentiment regarding even the region’s strongest economy supports... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jul.) July’s fall in the ZEW investor expectations index is another sign that Germany’s earlier economic resilience is over. The weakness of sentiment regarding even the region’s strongest economy supports... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth prospects worsen as crisis broadens The outlook for the European economy has deteriorated as the euro-zone debt crisis has broadened to envelop bigger countries like Spain. Despite the growing talk of the need for growth across the... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weaker currency won’t bail out the euro-zone The drop in the euro exchange rate to its most competitive trade-weighted level in over nine years might appear to improve the euro-zone’s growth prospects and reduce the need for the uncompetitive... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fall in Bund yields does not change weak property price outlook The sharp fall in 10-year German Bund yields since the end of Q1 has pushed all-property/Bund yield spreads in the euro-zone to new highs. Clearly, property yields now incorporate some allowances for... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q1) The contraction in GDP in the first quarter of this year is a reminder that, while Ireland has made some progress in restoring competitiveness and regaining the confidence of the bond markets, it is... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) May’s increase in euro-zone industrial production does not alter our view that the sector will continue to act as a drag on overall GDP growth. 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment case for Italian retail has weakened further Early last year, we argued that the investment case for the Italian retail market was weak. If anything, the situation has worsened since then. Indeed, a negative outlook for rents, coupled with... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish sovereign bail-out still looks very likely The measures announced at last night’s finance ministers’ meeting to support Spain don’t alter our view that the country will require a full sovereign bail-out in the fairly near future. 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How would a euro-zone exit affect households? Leaving the euro-zone would clearly have adverse consequences for households in the exiting country as higher import prices hit spending power. But they could reasonably believe that those costs would... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Policymakers will struggle to support global growth Hopes that the EU was finally getting to grips with its crisis and that monetary stimulus would boost global demand have faded. With euro break-up risk likely to rise in the second half of the year... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB out of ammo? After cutting interest rates to a historic low last week, ECB President Mario Draghi suggested that there was little more that the ECB could do. As far as conventional policy is concerned, this may... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) May’s monthly bounce in German industrial production does not alter the picture of a sharp slowdown in the sector previously considered the economy’s main engine of growth. 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why is Portugal the ‘Odd Man Out’? Government bond yields in Portugal have trended lower throughout this year. This contrasts with countries such as Spain and Italy, which have seen increases in recent months. We think this is because... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Europe a greater drag than China The slowdown in Europe has been a greater drag on the US economy than the softening in China. With the euro-zone on the cusp of a deep recession, this trend will only become more pronounced. The... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
