Europe Economics Update Will the equity rally boost household spending? We doubt that the recent equity market rally, combined with the ongoing downward trend in CPI inflation, will prompt a sustained recovery in euro-zone household spending. Indeed, in the periphery... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French wealth tax adds to fears for economy The news that some wealthy French households were taxed over 100% of their income last year has added to criticism of President François Hollande’s policies. But the bigger point is that rising... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone crisis really over? The improvement in market sentiment towards the euro-zone has not been matched by a material change in the troubled countries’ economic and fiscal outlooks. As such, the crisis is not over. 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Record euro-zone recession unlikely to end here The euro-zone’s Q1 GDP release made very grim reading. At least continued economic weakness will keep the pressure on the region’s policymakers to do more. But fiscal leniency has so far been very... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is monetary policy too loose for Germany? This Update addresses the question of whether monetary policy is now too loose for Germany and, if so, what can be done about it? While there are various policies that could be adopted at the national... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Mar.) & Final CPI (Apr.) While March’s euro-zone trade data are certainly encouraging, we remain sceptical that the sector can single-handedly drag the euro-zone and, in particular, the peripheral economies out of recession. 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q1) The mainland Norwegian economy picked-up strongly in Q1, suggesting that Q4’s slowdown was an outlier. But we still expect the economy to slow later in the year as the euro-zone crisis intensifies and... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q1 13) The mainland Norwegian economy picked-up strongly in Q1, suggesting that Q4’s slowdown was an outlier. But we still expect the economy to slow later in the year as the euro-zone crisis intensifies and... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Greece reached a turning point? The Q1 estimate of Greek GDP and the credit rating upgrade by Fitch suggests that the economy may finally be turning a corner. But we still think that the economic forecasts underpinning the rescue... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) Q1’s flash euro-zone GDP estimate confirmed that while the euro-zone economy performed rather better in Q1 than Q4, it remained in recession. 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What negative rates would mean for euro-zone neighbours As a result of ultra-loose monetary policy in major economies, central banks in smaller countries such as Switzerland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark are struggling to deal with both rising private debt... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (May) & Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Mar.) May’s German ZEW survey and March’s euro-zone industrial production numbers made encouraging reading, but do not alter our view that the euro-zone remains in recession. 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Germany's role in a solution to the euro-zone debt crisis This Update summarises views expressed by Capital Economics’ Jennifer McKeown in a panel discussion at the Euromoney “Germany Conference” in Berlin on 24th and 25th April. 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How vulnerable are German office rents to the slowdown? In contrast to our forecast for a modest fall during 2013, German office rental values began the year by posting another rise. Yet with economic sentiment in Germany deteriorating and office take-up... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the industrial recovery be sustained? March’s national industrial production figures suggest that the sector gained momentum over the course of Q1. But we suspect that the revival could soon fizzle out. After all, domestic growth... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavian investment demand flat-lining The signs from the first quarter are that, while the trend for investment demand in Emerging Europe might have turned the corner, in Scandinavia it remains stagnant. The latest survey and hard... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
