Europe Economics Weekly Further glimmers of hope Last week’s developments bolstered hopes that the euro-zone has finally reached a “turning point”. Indeed, given the further falls in peripheral government bond yields, some optimists even questioned... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will office take-up continue to rise in Amsterdam and Brussels? The sharp rise in office take-up seen over the past six months in both Amsterdam and Brussels is unlikely to be sustained over the next 15 months or so. In fact, we think that take-up will fall as... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) July’s rise in euro-zone industrial production has not altered our view that the economy as a whole is now in a technical recession. 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the bazooka now in place? The German Court’s decision to allow the ESM to be ratified, together with the ECB’s earlier promise to meet ESM bond purchases with unlimited purchases of its own, suggests that a substantial... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB provide a "third bail-out" for Greece? The ECB’s willingness to make “unlimited” government bond purchases in order to calm the situation in Spain could potentially have large positive repercussions for Greece too. But on balance, we doubt... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Has the game really changed? While the very positive response to the ECB’s plans to undertake “Outright Monetary Transactions” (OMTs) is not entirely without foundation, it at least looks over the top. On close inspection, the... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Jul.) July’s German industrial production and trade figures suggest that the economy made a good start to the third quarter despite falling demand elsewhere in the euro-zone. 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish rate cut unlikely to be the last We doubt that the latest interest rate reduction by the Riksbank will be the last in the cycle. If the euro-zone debt crisis intensifies as we expect, interest rates may eventually fall well below 1%. 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Positive reaction to ECB could prove short-lived The confirmation that the ECB is prepared to buy “unlimited” quantities of peripheral government bonds looks encouraging at face value. But the details reveal that the Bank has not upped its policy... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone GDP (Q2) The second euro-zone GDP release for Q2 revealed that last quarter’s contraction was down to a decline in domestic spending. With the timelier data consistent with sharper declines in activity ahead... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish rate cut unlikely to be the last We doubt that the latest interest rate reduction by the Riksbank will be the last in the cycle. If the euro-zone debt crisis intensifies as we expect, interest rates may eventually fall well below 1%. 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2 12) Q2’s fall in Swiss GDP could mark the start of a new recession. While Switzerland’s domestic outlook is far better than that of the euro-zone, the open economy will suffer from a strong currency and... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone back in recession Recent indicators have supported the view that the euro-zone is now firmly in recession. GDP fell by 0.2% in Q2 after stagnating in Q1 and falling by 0.3% in Q4. And the business surveys so far point... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2) Q2’s fall in Swiss GDP could mark the start of a new recession. While Switzerland’s domestic outlook is far better than that of the euro-zone, the open economy will suffer from a strong currency and... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug.) The latest fiscal data suggest that most of the peripheral economies will struggle to meet their budget deficit targets for 2012 without implementing further austerity measures. 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Consumer outlook darkens Data published last week did nothing to alter the picture of a rapidly worsening outlook for domestic spending throughout the euro-zone. Consumer sentiment in the periphery is now only a touch above... 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
