Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) August’s flash euro-zone PMIs provided further evidence that the currency union’s economy continued to expand in the third quarter, albeit at a pretty modest pace. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland on long and winding road to recovery Iceland is well on the way to recovery. But legacy problems from its 2008 crisis will hang over the economy for some time yet, preventing GDP from regaining its pre-crisis high until 2015. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the ECB’s forward guidance working? The limited rise in euro-zone market interest rates might suggest that the ECB’s forward guidance is working. But it would be premature to conclude that the central bank can continue to protect the... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s debt dynamics still look ugly Despite the recent upward revision to our forecast for Italian GDP growth, we still think that the Government’s budget deficit and debt forecasts are too sanguine. 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Return to growth won’t eliminate euro-zone default risks The recent return of economic growth in the euro-zone does not eradicate the risk that some of the peripheral economies will undertake some form of sovereign default. 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q2) The mainland Norwegian economy slowed quite sharply in Q2 as a result of faltering household spending, supporting our long-held view that the economy will slow over the coming year. 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q2 13) The mainland Norwegian economy slowed quite sharply in Q2 as a result of faltering household spending, supporting our long-held view that the economy will slow over the coming year. 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could falls in Brussels office yields be sustained? The last few weeks have brought increased evidence that the Brussels office market is gaining popularity with national and international investors. For now, occupier market conditions remain pretty... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Exports alone can’t save Slovenia Slovenia’s large export sector is faring rather well, supporting the country’s efforts to avoid a bail-out from the euro-zone. But exporters alone will not save Slovenia. Rather, the Government needs... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession over, but crisis unresolved While the second quarter’s 0.3% expansion in euro-zone GDP may partly have reflected temporary factors, there seems little reason to doubt that the region’s record-long recession is finally at an end... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the recovery in the euro-zone business surveys the real deal? The rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2, coupled with the improvements in the key business surveys, confirms that a turning point in the business cycle has been reached. But these developments do not... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Respite from French recession, but recovery hopes overblown Q2’s 0.5% quarterly rise in French GDP, which was the strongest in over two years, has prompted optimism that the economy has finally joined Germany on a path to solid growth. But while we have... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for euro-zone equities? Today’s euro-zone GDP data provided a further small boost to the region’s stock markets, which have been enjoying something of a revival in the second half of 2013. However, the economic outlook in... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2) The return to modest rates of economic growth in the euro-zone as a whole won’t address the deep-seated economic and fiscal problems of the peripheral countries. 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German minimum wage won’t rebalance the euro-zone Germany seems set to introduce a national minimum wage after September’s election. But it will probably do little to boost German consumer spending or to rebalance the euro-zone more generally. 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Jun.) & German ZEW Survey (Aug.) June’s euro-zone industrial production data and August’s German ZEW survey provide further signs that the euro-zone has emerged from recession. 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
