Europe Economics Update Will tourism kick-start a Greek economic recovery? Recent developments in Greece’s tourism sector suggest that the economy might record another quarterly rise in GDP in Q3. But even if this is the case, we suspect that this will not mark the start of... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Sep.) & Euro-zone Trade (Jul.) German investor sentiment strengthened in September, suggesting that the economic recovery should continue, albeit at a slower pace than in Q2. But the fall in euro-zone export values in July suggests... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bavarian state election points to national grand coalition While the CSU, sister party to Angela Merkel’s CDU, won a clear victory in Bavaria yesterday, the poor showing for the FDP bodes ill for the current coalition at a national level. The chance of Mrs... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) & Final CPI (Aug.) Q2’s labour cost data revealed that cost growth in the euro-zone core slowed relative to that in the periphery, undermining hopes of a swift rebalancing within the bloc. 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Spain finally getting its casa in order? Spain has begun to resolve some of its deep economic problems and its recession has eased. But the strong recovery needed to lower unemployment dramatically and ensure that public sector debt does not... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Data dent hopes of French renaissance July’s French industrial production data were a blow to hopes that the economy is staging a longawaited recovery. With business surveys at low levels, consumer confidence weak, unemployment rising and... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Employment (Q2) Q2’s employment data suggest that the downturn in the euro-zone labour market is coming to an end. But a significant upturn remains a distant prospect. 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update When will Denmark normalise monetary policy? Denmark’s year-long experiment with negative deposit rates is likely to come to an end next year. But we think that markets are wrong to expect a second rate hike before the end of 2014. 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update When will Denmark normalise monetary policy? Denmark’s year-long experiment with negative deposit rates is likely to come to an end next year. Butwe think that markets are wrong to expect a second rate hike before the end of 2014. 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fiscal policy won’t fuel the euro-zone recovery Hopes that looser or less tight fiscal policy will fuel the recovery in the euro-zone economy are unlikely to be met. For the foreseeable future, fiscal policy will remain a sizeable drag on growth. 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) July’s large fall in euro-zone industrial production put a serious dent in hopes that the tentative recovery underway in the region’s economy will have gathered further momentum in the current quarter... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP (Q2) & French Industrial Production (Jul.) Although Q2’s final Italian GDP figures painted a reasonably encouraging picture, timelier hard data, such as the French industrial production numbers for July, suggest that the euro-zone economy... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP (Q2) & French Industrial Production (Jul.) Although Q2’s final Italian GDP figures painted a reasonably encouraging picture, timelier hard data, such as the French industrial production numbers for July, suggest that the euro-zone economy... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would a left-wing coalition mean for Germany? The possible coalition of Germany’s SPD, Green and Left parties after next week’s election would probably mean slightly higher taxes and spending than under the more likely alternatives of a grand... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Greece reached a turning point? The quarterly rise in Greek GDP in Q2 raises hopes that the economy has reached a turning point. But we doubt that Greece is now on the path to recovery and still think that further financial... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What effect will Germany's election have on euro-zone bonds? Germany will probably continue to provide temporary support for troubled euro-zone countries but retain an emphasis on austerity after its election later this month. This should minimise the demand... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
