Europe Economics Update 2013: Another challenging year for the euro-zone The intervention of the European Central Bank helped to prevent the euro-zone debt crisis from escalating further in 2012. But the currency union still faces a number of major challenges in 2013. 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How encouraging are recent current account trends? The narrowing of the southern euro-zone economies’ current account deficits implies that economic imbalances within the region are shrinking. But the rebalancing process is far from complete. 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s small rise in the German Ifo business survey is moderately encouraging news. But the index still points to economic stagnation in the near term. 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update 2012: Day of reckoning postponed by the ECB Our fears that 2012 could be the “crunch year” for the euro-zone were not borne out – barring catastrophe in the next week or so! However, the fact that the economic news has been largely as we... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q3) Ireland’s small rise in GDP in the third quarter underlined its status as the healthiest of the euro-zone’s peripheral economies. But it still faces considerable challenges in 2013 and beyond. 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Negative ECB rates might do more harm than good Given the dubious benefits and possible costs of cutting deposit rates below zero, we still see ECB interest rates remaining on hold for the foreseeable future. 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank lowers rates and further cuts to come We doubt that the latest interest rate reduction by the Swedish Riksbank will be the last in the current cycle. While the Bank has concerns about the longer-term effects of a prolonged period of low... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank lowers rates and further cuts to come We doubt that the latest interest rate reduction by the Swedish Riksbank will be the last in the current cycle. While the Bank has concerns about the longer-term effects of a prolonged period of low... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade Balance (Oct.) October’s euro-zone trade data confirmed that the region continues to run a large trade surplus by historical standards. But the recent fall in exports is another reason to believe that the consensus... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slow progress towards banking union The European Council finally managed to reach some important compromises last week, allowing progress to be made towards setting up an EU-wide bank supervisor in the form of the ECB. But, presumably... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.), Final CPI (Nov.) & Emp. (Q3) Despite rising for a second month running in December, the euro-zone composite PMI remained well below the “no-change” level, consistent with a deepening recession in Q4. 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Further falls in European property investment likely in 2013 Our forecast that 2012 European commercial property volumes would be as much as 20% lower than in 2011 looks to be on track. Unfortunately, the conditions are not in place for a rebound in 2013. If... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How long will the Greek relief last? The news that Greece will get its next and long-awaited bail-out loan payment within days will provide Greek and euro-zone policymakers with a bit of breathing space. But we doubt that this will bring... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct. 12) October’s euro-zone industrial production data provided further strong evidence that the recession in the single currency area has deepened in the fourth quarter. 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will retail rents in Amsterdam and Helsinki continue to trend up? The relatively strong rise in Helsinki retail rental values seen since 2010 is not difficult to square with the underlying health of the Finnish economy. But it is less straightforward to justify... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the ECB solved the crisis? Recent actions by euro-zone policymakers and the ECB in particular have prompted some commentators to conclude that the region has turned a corner. But we still expect the crisis to deepen again soon... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
