Europe Economics Focus Would a euro break-up be worse than the Lehmans crisis? The economic and financial effects of one or two small economies leaving the euro-zone would not necessarily be major, but the initial impact of a larger collapse would be rather more serious... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the core softening its stance? Developments over the past week or so suggest that the core euro-zone governments’ attitudes towards the peripheral economies currently receiving bail-outs may be mellowing. But while this reduces the... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep. 12) The latest monetary data have revealed that commercial banks are still using ECB funds to buy government bonds. Worryingly, though, the downturn in lending to the private sector has accelerated. 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Have Irish commercial property values reached a floor? The tone of both of today’s commercial property data releases was downbeat. Although the latest Bank of England survey showed that credit supply in the sector has improved slightly, borrowers are not... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Composite PMI & German Ifo Survey (Oct.) October’s euro-zone PMI and German Ifo surveys continued to paint a pretty dismal picture of growth prospects in the region as a whole and confirmed that Germany is also suffering. 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What is the outlook for retail rents in Stockholm? Over the next year or so, we think retail rental values in Stockholm will remain flat. Indeed, although we don’t expect consumer spending to contract, growth is likely to be very subdued, especially... 23rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banks still reducing their exposures to the periphery The core euro-zone banks continued to reduce their claims on the region’s peripheral economies in Q2. And despite recent hopes that the worst of the euro-zone debt crisis may now be over, we expect... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can Spain really have its cake and eat it? Speculation built last week that Spain is finally about to ask for a bail-out and hence trigger the European Central Bank’s new bond-buying programme, giving Spanish bond yields another nudge... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Calls for secession are a blow to fiscal union hopes Calls for independence from the richest regions of Spain, Belgium and Italy threaten to blow big holes in the public finances of the three economies. And more fundamentally, growing public aversion to... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would a Spanish bail-out mean for Italy? A Spanish bail-out and subsequent ECB bond purchases may reinforce the perception that policymakers will provide similar support to Italy to keep its bond yields down too. But lower bond yields will... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are commercial property investment volumes in CEE set to recover? Given the weak economic outlook for the Emerging European economies and the fact that credit conditions are likely to remain tight, we suspect that over the next 18 months the recent rise in... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Mariodona will have to swerve soon The fall in government bond yields after the ECB announced its new bond-buying programme has prompted suggestions that the plan may not actually need to be activated. But it is only a matter of time... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook A lull in the storm Expectations of stronger policy support from the European Central Bank have prompted a period of relative calm in the euro-zone. But previous lulls have not lasted for very long. There are still few... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Oct.), EZ Trade & Final CPI (Aug./Sep.) October’s rise in the German ZEW index suggests that the prospect of ECB bond purchases has continued to ease investors’ fears for the economy. And August’s trade data suggest that the euro-zone as a... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Budget doesn’t solve Portugal’s problems On the face of it, Portugal’s Budget for 2013 will enable it to meet the deficit targets set by the Troika and receive the rest of its bail-out funds. But public resistance to austerity and/or a sharp... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will industrial rental value growth in Zurich outpace Geneva? Industrial rents seem to be more sensitive to changes in the Swiss economy in Geneva than in Zurich. And industrial rents in Geneva also look a little high compared to Zurich, at least relative to... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
