Europe Economics Update Is Greek industry really recovering? Greek industry has recently staged a bit of a revival, but we doubt that the upturn will be sustained. And even if it is, the wider economy may remain in recession. 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The euro-zone’s multiplying woes The IMF’s analysis suggesting that “fiscal multipliers” are rather bigger than many governments have been assuming does not tell us much that we did not already know about the euro-zone. It’s pretty... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s rise in euro-zone industrial production suggests that GDP is unlikely to have contracted as sharply as the more downbeat business surveys suggest in Q3 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why is Spain still dragging its heels? Spain’s delay in applying for a bail-out and hence triggering the ECB’s new bond buying plan probably reflects both political and financial considerations. But it can’t hold out for much longer. 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fundamentals still point to rising property yields in Paris The recent rebound in French real estate equity prices suggests that our forecast for commercial property capital values in Paris to fall by a total of 15% to 20% in 2012-13 may be too pessimistic... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too gloomy on the outlook for Spanish retail rents? Weak prospects for Spain’s consumer sector suggest that retail occupier demand will deteriorate before the end of this year. That together with a development pipeline which is still growing makes us... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Aug.) August’s German industrial production and trade figures suggest that, unlike most of the rest of the euro-zone, the economy is probably avoiding a recession for now. 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Does the ECB have a strong case for buying Spanish bonds? If Spain applied to the EFSF/ESM for a (partial) sovereign bail-out, the path would become clear for the ECB to buy Spanish government bonds under its Outright Monetary Transmissions (OMT) programme... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Could Greece take advantage of a return to the drachma? The view of some commentators that a return to the drachma would be of little benefit to Greece because “it does not export much” is wide of the mark. Not only would an exit and devaluation improve... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the Greek bail-out starting to crumble? Successful bond auctions by the Spanish and Portuguese Governments last week, coupled with signs that other markets may also be starting to function more normally, provided further glimmers of hope... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB plays its cards close to its chest President Draghi reiterated the ECB’s determination to preserve the single currency at today’s interest rate press conference, but there remains a large amount of uncertainty surrounding how the... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Just how weak are Greek property markets? Details surrounding last week’s privatisation deal involving the International Broadcasting Centre in Athens suggest that the Greek commercial property market may be even weaker than agency figures... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economic outlook continues to darken The unveiling of the ECB’s new bond purchase programme may have provided markets with a lift, but further declines in business and consumer sentiment suggest that the overall eurozone economic outlook... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Budget marks a small step forward for Greece By announcing fiscal measures to generate the €13.5bn of savings demanded by the Troika, the Greek Government has moved a step closer to gaining the next loan instalment from its bail-out package. But... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Aug.) & Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The rise in euro-zone unemployment in August, coupled with the still low level of the manufacturing PMI, adds to the evidence that the region is in a deepening and broadening recession. 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Small steps forward don't lift the uncertainty Developments in the euro-zone last week brought the implementation of more decisive policy action to tackle the region’s debt crisis an important step closer. Most notably, the Spanish budget included... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
