ECB Watch Surveying the zero bound with caution After cutting interest rates last month and hinting that more support might be to come, we suspect that the ECB will disappoint markets at its forthcoming policy meeting and press conference... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (May 13) The EC consumer and business survey for May suggests that the euro-zone recession may be easing. But an economic recovery still appears to be some way off. 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q1 13) Swiss GDP data for Q1 confirmed that the economy continued to perform well. But the still high level of the franc does appear to be damaging exports and we suspect that growth will slow significantly... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q1 13) Swiss GDP data for Q1 confirmed that the economy continued to perform well. But the still high level of the franc does appear to be damaging exports and we suspect that growth will slow significantly... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will lower interest rates halt the rise in Budapest property yields? Yesterday’s cut in official interest rates in Hungary is good news for property markets in Budapest. But we are sceptical that the latest easing cycle is sustainable. And if, as we expect, interest... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Sweden & Norway lose their shine? Over the past five years, Sweden and Norway have performed remarkably well by the standards of the developed world, but their recoveries may be starting to run out of steam. Nonetheless, both... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) While positive on the surface, the acceleration in money supply growth conceals several worrying dynamics, not least another fall in lending to firms. 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish GDP (Q1) We think that Q1’s healthy rise in Swedish GDP is not quite as encouraging as it initially seems. But while we expect GDP growth to slow over the remainder of 2013, Sweden will continue to perform... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q1 13) We think that Q1’s healthy rise in Swedish GDP is not quite as encouraging as it initially seems. But while we expect GDP growth to slow over the remainder of 2013, Sweden will continue to perform... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Will Sweden & Norway lose their shine? Over the past five years, Sweden and Norway have performed remarkably well by the standards of the developed world, but their recoveries may be starting to run out of steam. Nonetheless, both... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland won’t unfreeze capital flows anytime soon Five years since they were implemented, Iceland still relies on ‘temporary’ capital controls to support its currency. And they are likely to remain in place for some time yet despite the new... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) Recent fiscal data suggest that Greece has continued to make good fiscal progress, but the other southern euro-zone economies are not faring quite as well. 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Artificially low Zurich office yields set to rise The low level of prime office yields reported in Zurich could be a sign of strong investor confidence in that city. We suspect, however, that they have been artificially depressed by a small number of... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland won’t unfreeze capital flows anytime soon Five years since they were implemented, Iceland still relies on ‘temporary’ capital controls to support its currency. And they are likely to remain in place for some time yet despite the new... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Liquidity concerns could soon deepen again The continued falls in commercial banks’ deposits at the ECB are in part a reflection of an improvement in conditions in the banking sector. But further falls could see liquidity falling to levels... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo (May), Consumer Conf. (Jun) & Final GDP (Q1) May’s renewed rise in the German Ifo survey and the increase in the GfK consumer confidence indicator for June added to signs that the economy is recovering. But we expect the recovery to be modest. 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
