ECB Watch A testing new year Having prevented catastrophe in 2012 by pledging to do whatever it takes to save the euro, the European Central Bank will have to follow words with actions in 2013. While no policy changes are likely... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec. 12) The latest fiscal data support the view that both Italy and Spain will fail to meet their fiscal goals for 2012 as a whole. 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov. 12) The latest euro-zone monetary data brought no signs of any easing in the severe credit constraints facing both households and companies in the single currency area. 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Monti’s declaration will not end political uncertainty Mario Monti’s widely expected decision to head a “centrist alliance” probably increases the chances of Italy continuing its reform process, but the political situation remains uncertain. What’s more... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The renewed fall in the euro-zone manufacturing PMI in December underlined the weakness of activity in the region at the end of last year. 2013 looks set to be another very challenging year for the... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Armageddon postponed The European Central Bank’s promises helped to prevent Armageddon in the euro-zone in 2012. But it will have to put its money where its mouth is in 2013 and the risk of disappointment is high... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will office rental values in Rome fall further than Milan? Recent falls in Italian office rental values are likely to be extended next year. But with a 10% drop in public sector jobs in the pipeline, occupier demand and thus rents, are likely to fall further... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update 2013: Another challenging year for the euro-zone The intervention of the European Central Bank helped to prevent the euro-zone debt crisis from escalating further in 2012. But the currency union still faces a number of major challenges in 2013. 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How encouraging are recent current account trends? The narrowing of the southern euro-zone economies’ current account deficits implies that economic imbalances within the region are shrinking. But the rebalancing process is far from complete. 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s small rise in the German Ifo business survey is moderately encouraging news. But the index still points to economic stagnation in the near term. 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update 2012: Day of reckoning postponed by the ECB Our fears that 2012 could be the “crunch year” for the euro-zone were not borne out – barring catastrophe in the next week or so! However, the fact that the economic news has been largely as we... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q3) Ireland’s small rise in GDP in the third quarter underlined its status as the healthiest of the euro-zone’s peripheral economies. But it still faces considerable challenges in 2013 and beyond. 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Negative ECB rates might do more harm than good Given the dubious benefits and possible costs of cutting deposit rates below zero, we still see ECB interest rates remaining on hold for the foreseeable future. 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank lowers rates and further cuts to come We doubt that the latest interest rate reduction by the Swedish Riksbank will be the last in the current cycle. While the Bank has concerns about the longer-term effects of a prolonged period of low... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank lowers rates and further cuts to come We doubt that the latest interest rate reduction by the Swedish Riksbank will be the last in the current cycle. While the Bank has concerns about the longer-term effects of a prolonged period of low... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade Balance (Oct.) October’s euro-zone trade data confirmed that the region continues to run a large trade surplus by historical standards. But the recent fall in exports is another reason to believe that the consensus... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
