UK Economics Weekly BoE’s dovish tone is coming back to haunt it The hawkish comments made by the Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, at this week’s ECB annual Sintra gathering marks the latest step by the Bank to get on the front foot in its fight against... 30th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Higher ECB rate forecast, Riksbank eyes stronger SEK We are nudging up our peak ECB rate forecast in light of communications from ECB officials at Sintra and the latest economic data. We now see 25bp rate hikes in both July and September, taking the... 30th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (June) June’s inflation data won’t shift the dial at the ECB. While the headline rate is on a steep downward trend, services inflation shows no sign of falling. 30th June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q1 2023 Final) The final Q1 2023 GDP data confirms that the economy steered clear of a recession at the start of 2023. But with around 60% of the drag from higher interest rates yet to be felt, we still think the... 30th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany HICP (June) The increase in German headline and core inflation in June was mainly due to base effects. Euro-zone headline inflation probably still fell but the core rate is likely to have been little changed... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Is corporate greed to blame for high inflation? 1688652000 Consumer anger is mounting, executives are on the defensive and politicians are scrambling to respond.
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (June) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally fell in June, and our regional-weighted headline measure points to lacklustre GDP growth... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (Jun.) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) weakened further in June and is broadly consistent with the economy stagnating at best. We expect the euro-zone’s mild recession to continue for the rest of... 29th June 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (May 2023) Higher interest rates continued to weigh on bank lending in May, particularly in the housing market. This effect will only intensify as the Bank of England raises interest rates from 5.00% now to a... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (June 2023) The 25bp rate hike announced by the Riksbank today, which brings the key policy rate to 3.75%, had been strongly signalled at the Riksbank’s last meeting. But the accompanying statement and decisions... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Spain HICP (June 2023) The further fall in Spanish HICP inflation will provide some respite for households who have suffered a sharp hit to real household income over the last year. But it will have little sway over ECB... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Falls in CEE interest rate expectations look overdone Investors generally revised down their interest rate expectations across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past month, partly reflecting weaker-than-expected inflation prints and more dovish... 28th June 2023 · 11 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Higher rates make further house price falls inevitable Higher mortgage rates have not only priced many buyers out of the market altogether, but also reduced the size of mortgage those still able to buy can take out. The latest surge in mortgage rates to... 28th June 2023 · 10 mins read
